Canada Federal Election Poll (Apr10-Apr12 2025)

Click here for full NATIONAL tabular results.

Click here for ATLANTIC CANADA (NS / NB / NL / PE) tabular results broken out by region within each Atlantic province.

Current Wave Snapshot: (click here for tracking and other polling waves)

Commentary:

Our latest poll results (Apr10-12) for the Canadian federal election.

The relative stability in national topline support (LPC n/c; CPC +1; NDP +1) is hiding some interesting churn under the hood this time — at halfway through the election, maybe this is when we start to see some dynamics.

We’re seeing a sizable swing toward CPC in British Columbia; deepening red in Quebec and Ontario; and, the LPC’s Atlantic numbers coming down to earth a bit.

As always, don’t bet your life’s savings on any one poll. I’m (at ~least~) as skeptical as the next guy, so we oversampled to check if these trends would hold. They held. I’ll post some more findings from our analyses on these results tomorrow (believe me; we dug into it).

Let the games begin?

MQO & Global Public Affairs | 2025 Canada Federal Election Polling

– Brenden Sommerhalder

Read on Substack

Methodology

Responses were collected via online panel between April 10 and April 12, 2025. Respondents were 1,898 eligible national voters, and oversamples of additional 420 eligible voters in Atlantic region and additional 127 in British Columbia to enable segment analyses and to verify emerging trends in these regions. This poll was considered a non-probabilistic sample due to the contribution from online panel, therefore a margin of error cannot be calculated. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of 1, 898 respondents would have a margin of error of 2.3%, 19 times out of 20. Data were weighted to 2021 Canadian census proportions by age, gender, and region.

This research was conducted by MQO Research, commissioned by Global Public Affairs. MQO Research is an accredited agency member of the Canadian Research Insights Council. The firm was the most accurate polling agency in the 2024 Nova Scotia provincial election, projecting the result within two percentage points for all parties.

READ: On Election Polling: Importance, Challenges, and MQO’s Perspective

About MQO Research

Founded in 1987 as MarketQuest Research, the present-day MQO Research was formed following the acquisition of Omnifacts Research in 2010. A leading market research, polling, and evaluation firm based in Atlantic Canada and serving clients across North America, MQO is an Accredited Agency Member of the Canadian Research Insights Council and the only full-service market research firm in Atlantic Canada with an in-house and fully bilingual telephone call centre. MQO’s history of research excellence and end-to-end services enables the firm to uphold the highest industry standards for quality control and consistency in delivering research services.

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