Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 1, 2025

Snapshots

Canada

Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney speaks to his supporters in Ottawa, Canada, on April 29, 2025, after winning the country&rsquo;s early general elections. 

Economics

Politics

Canada's newly elected Liberal government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, is poised to tackle an economic slowdown with tax cuts, domestic industry protection, and closer ties to Europe despite falling just short of a parliamentary majority.

Liberals Win Canada Election, but Minority Government Will Complicate Legislation

Global Elections

Iran

Saudi Arabia

A woman walks by anti-U.S. murals on the walls of the former U.S. embassy in downtown Tehran, Iran, on April 11, 2025. 

Energy

Military & Security

The U.S. will likely have to allow some Iranian uranium enrichment to ink a nuclear deal, likely resulting in Saudi Arabia seeking similar provisions for its own civilian nuclear program.

With Iran and Saudi Arabia, the U.S. Faces a Uranium Enrichment Dilemma

U.S.-Iran Relations

Europe

Italy

Ukraine

India

Pakistan

Indian soldiers stand guard atop their vehicle in Srinagar, India, on April 23, 2025, following a deadly militant attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Escalating Pakistan-India Tensions, Canadian Elections and Pope Francis' Funeral

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

China

A digital illustration of the Chinese and EU flags.

Global Trade

Transatlantic trade tensions have created a window for tactical EU-China engagement, but structural constraints and unresolved disputes limit prospects for meaningful realignment.

Budding EU-China Rapprochement Amid U.S. Tariffs Will Have Its Limits

U.S.-China Relations

Media

Podcasts

Will India be able to stay on track for its growth goals?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for India's Economy

An Indian paramilitary serviceman keeps watch in Pahalgam, south of Srinagar, on April 23, 2025, following a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. 

India and Pakistan's exchange of tit-for-tat diplomatic and economic moves is raising the risk of a military escalation, while also fueling domestic unrest due to rising nationalist sentiment in both countries.

India-Pakistan Tensions Surge Following Deadly Kashmir Attack

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Yemeni soldiers stand guard during a protest against the United States on April 18, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen. 

As intensified U.S. airstrikes fail to halt Houthi attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping, Washington is increasingly likely to seek on-the-ground Yemeni partners to pressure the militant movement.


In Yemen, the U.S.'s Anti-Houthi Campaign Raises the Specter of a Government Ground Offensive

Russia

People walk past an electronic panel, promoting the contract service in the Russian armed forces, with a sign that reads "Our profession is to defend the Fatherland" in a shopping mall on May 11, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. 

Russia is signaling it may welcome back Western companies, but strict conditions, ongoing sanctions and reputational risks are likely to deter a widespread return.

Russia Opens Door to Western Firms, But With Major Strings Attached

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 24, 2025

Mexico

Trucks travel by the U.S.-Mexico border after crossing the border into the United States at Otay Mesa, California, on April 2, 2025. 

Although U.S. tariffs will hurt Mexico's economy in the short term, they may eventually grant Mexico a competitive advantage over countries that face even higher duties.

The Buffers That Will Help Mexico Navigate Tariff Turbulence

Latest

Drag-line excavator mines rare earth materials on Ukrainian soil on Feb. 25, 2025, in the Zhytomyr region of Ukraine. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A new U.S.-Ukraine economic deal offers Washington a long-term stake in Ukraine's critical resources -- and a potential lever in ceasefire diplomacy.

New Strategic Pact Gives U.S. Stake in Ukraine's Economic Future

An Indian paramilitary trooper patrols a market area in Pahalgam, south of Srinagar, in India-held Kashmir, on April 29, 2025. 

India will likely soon launch limited military strikes against Pakistan in retaliation for the deadly April 22 Kashmir attack, raising the risk of escalation despite both sides' desire to avoid a full-scale war.

The Drivers and Constraints to a Wider India-Pakistan Conflict

France

United Kingdom

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (2 L) and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) attend a meeting with European and Ukrainian officials on April 17 at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris.

Ukraine will be forced to choose between compromising on its supposed red lines to de-escalate its war with Russia, or risk losing U.S. support and its battlefield position. 

Growing U.S. Pressure for a Peace Deal Puts Ukraine in a Difficult Position

Kuwait

Kuwaiti traders follow the stock market activity at the Boursa Kuwait stock exchange building in Kuwait City on April 7, 2025. 

The law will enable external borrowing to finance the country's deficits and Vision 2035 investments, but Kuwait's growing reliance on debt markets to increase capital expenditure could eventually prove problematic. 

After Eight Years of Gridlock, Kuwait Finally Passes a New Debt Law

Argentina

Aerial view of 9 de Julio Avenue in Buenos Aires, Argentina, is seen on April 10, 2025, during a 24-hour strike called by workers' unions against the economic policies of President Javier Milei. 

The $20 billion bailout package will reduce financial risks amid Argentina's ongoing macroeconomic adjustment, but the threat of policy slippage will increase ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

What To Make of Argentina's Latest IMF Deal

South Africa

Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen holds a press conference in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Jan. 28, 2025.

Rising tensions between the ruling ANC and its key coalition partner over the 2025 budget are raising the risk of a coalition breakdown, which would threaten policy paralysis and a marked depreciation of the rand.

What the Democratic Alliance's Exit From Government Would Mean for South Africa

Cranes unload shipping containers from a ship at a port in Qingdao, in eastern China's Shandong province, on April 2, 2025. 

The timing and scope of Beijing's retaliatory measures signal a significant escalation of its trade war with Washington, which may nonetheless increase the long-term chance of a trade deal.

China Abandons Restraint With Latest Trade Salvo Against the U.S.

Chad

Sudan

A photo of Khartoum, Sudan, with columns of smoke rising in the background.

The SAF's military victory in Khartoum marks a turning point in the country's civil war, but a firm resolution remains out of reach as the RSF fights to consolidate control in the west.

What Next for Sudan After the Army Retakes Khartoum?

Columns

On Geopolitics

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Madagascar

Mali

Mauritania

Niger

Nigeria

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Togo

Algeria

Morocco

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

Israel

Lebanon

Syria

A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in the village of Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025, in northern Israel. 

Hezbollah's military losses and the formation of Lebanon's new government have opened the door to a new chapter in Lebanese history, although external pressure will complicate the country's next steps.

Hezbollah's Future in Lebanon

A crowd of men in 1930 wearing jackets and hats.

U.S. tariffs are throwing economies across the globe into disarray, just as they did in 1930, but lessons from the past could keep the world from tipping into a second Great Depression.

Lessons From the 1930s on Avoiding a Second Great Depression

Germany

Poland

Spain

NATO military forces during static display after the Steadfast Dart 2025 military exercises at the Smardan Training Area in Smardan, Romania, on Feb. 19, 2025. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Europe is increasingly focused on achieving greater strategic autonomy in defense, but internal divisions and material constraints will plague this quest, even as the United States' role on the Continent continues to shrink, meaning NATO will likely remain the cornerstone of Europe&rsquo;s security architecture. 

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 2: The View From Europe

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) moments after the Closing Bell and the start of U.S. President Donald Trump's news conference on tariffs on April 2, 2025.

Rather than sparking a manufacturing renaissance, Trump's tariff policy threatens to undermine U.S. economic competitiveness for years to come.

The Perils and Pitfalls of Trump's Trade Strategy

Members of the Spanish and Bulgarian armed forces during the NATO exercise Steadfast Dart on Feb. 13, 2025, in Tsrancha, Bulgaria. 

Any U.S. retrenchment away from Europe will more likely be gradual, shaped by strategic realities, shared interests and material constraints, but this transition will still carry profound military, economic and societal implications that will deeply reshape the Continent's security landscape and accelerate the transition to a truly multipolar world.

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 1: The View From Washington

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks from the Oval Office on March 7, 2025, after announcing that tariffs could be imposed on Canadian dairy and lumber products within days. 

The expanding scope of Trump's trade wars, coupled with the whiplash of tariffs being enacted and then suspended, begs the question: what is driving this strategy and what, if anything, will constrain it?

Trump's Emerging Trade Doctrine

Participants in a national political conference organized by Mali's military regime recommended appointing junta leader Col. Assimi Goita as president of the republic for a renewable five-year term, without going through elections, RFI reported on April 30.

Mali: National Political Conference Recommends Nominating Junta Leader as President

Kenya

The Kenyan government introduced the Finance Bill 2025 in the National Assembly, which Cabinet Secretary for the National Treasury John Mbadi said did not involve "any tax measures which will add burden on the taxpayer," despite the bill not yet being made public, Citizen Digital reported April 30.

Kenya: Government Introduces New Finance Bill Amid Fresh Controversy Over 2024 Protests

South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said that he would present a new budget to South Africa's National Assembly on May 21, adding that it would focus on spending discipline and not involve additional taxes or borrowing, the Daily Maverick reported April 30.

South Africa: Finance Minister To Present New Budget on May 21

Myanmar

Myanmar's governing military junta allowed its unilaterally declared April ceasefire to lapse on May 1, AFP reported the same day.

Myanmar: Junta Lets Post-Earthquake Ceasefire Expire

South Korea

South Korea's Supreme Court on May 1 overturned the Seoul High Court's decision to acquit former head of the opposition Democratic Party (DPK) and current frontrunner for the June 3 presidential election, Lee Jae-myung, of violating the election law related to false statements he made during the 2022 presidential election campaign, Korea JoongAng Daily reported the same day.

South Korea: Court Ruling for Presidential Frontrunner Prolongs Political, Market Uncertainty

Egypt

Jordan

Turkey

Jordanian diplomats quietly secured U.S. funding for projects focused on desalination, direct budget support and defense following the sudden U.S. aid freeze announced in January, Reuters reported on April 30.

U.S., Jordan: Washington Unfreezes Some Aid to Jordan

Americas

French officials say the country remains opposed to an EU-Mercosur free trade agreement, stressing that recent U.S. tariff hikes have "not changed" their position on a deal they still deem unacceptable due to insufficient protections for domestic agricultural sectors, Politico reported April 30, citing unnamed government sources.

Europe, South America: France Reiterates Opposition To EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Science & Technology

A digital map illustration of Russia.

The White House believes that restoring ties with Moscow will help it negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine and, more importantly, undermine Russia-China relations in the long run. But numerous potential pitfalls mean this approach is unlikely to pay off.

The Rationale and Risks of Trump's Push to Reengage With Russia

A map of the United States from 1897. While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

What a Revisionist U.S. Foreign Policy Could Mean for the World

Mozambique

Mozambique's Council of Ministers approved the country's 2025 budget, Bloomberg reported April 29.

Mozambique: Government Seeks Spending Cuts in Push To Secure New IMF Program

North Korea

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced on April 30 that Russia and North Korea had begun construction on a $111-million road bridge over the Tumen River, near an existing rail bridge in the narrow border area between the two countries, NK News reported April 30.

North Korea, Russia: Countries Break Ground on New Road Bridge, in Latest Sign of Growing Trade Ties

The United Kingdom conducted airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen in coordination with the United States for the first time since the Labour Party took control of the U.K. government in July, BBC reported April 30.

U.K., Yemen: U.K. Conducts First Airstrike on Houthis Under New Government

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead &bull; Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead &bull; Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead &bull; Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead &bull; Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead &bull; Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia&rsquo;s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Mali: National Political Conference Recommends Nominating Junta Leader as President

Kenya: Government Introduces New Finance Bill Amid Fresh Controversy Over 2024 Protests

South Africa: Finance Minister To Present New Budget on May 21

Myanmar: Junta Lets Post-Earthquake Ceasefire Expire

South Korea: Court Ruling for Presidential Frontrunner Prolongs Political, Market Uncertainty

U.S., Jordan: Washington Unfreezes Some Aid to Jordan

Europe, South America: France Reiterates Opposition To EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Mozambique: Government Seeks Spending Cuts in Push To Secure New IMF Program

North Korea, Russia: Countries Break Ground on New Road Bridge, in Latest Sign of Growing Trade Ties

U.K., Yemen: U.K. Conducts First Airstrike on Houthis Under New Government

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