Northeast Donetsk Oblast campaign

Northeast Donetsk Oblast campaign
Part of the Luhansk Oblast campaign and Eastern front of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Ukrainian 81st Airmobile Brigade during the fighting for Bilohorivka, 2025
Date 28 December 2024 — present (4 months, 2 weeks and 1 day) Location Northeastern Donetsk Oblast and western Luhansk Oblast Status Ongoing
Belligerents
Russia	Ukraine
Units involved
Order of battle	Order of battle
Strength
Unknown	Unknown

The Northeast Donetsk Oblast campaign is a military campaign taking place in northeastern Donetsk Oblast as part of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. The campaign started after Russian forces seized Ivano-Darivka and began advancing towards the village of Terny on the eastern bank of the Zherebets river, located northeast of the strategic city of Lyman. The campaign was marked by a shift in offensive operations in the area, which saw Russian forces attempting to cross the Zherebets river and advance on Lyman as part of a larger effort to encircle northern Donetsk Oblast.

Background

Following Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the east in 2022, Russia failed its initial objective of encircling Northern Donetsk Oblast, as its salient in eastern Kharkiv Oblast collapsed and the strategic cities of Lyman and Sviatohirsk were recaptured. The collapse of Russia's salient in eastern Kharkiv Oblast and Ukraine's recapture of Sviatohirsk and Lyman forced Russian forces to pull back towards Luhansk Oblast. Following this withdrawal, the frontline began to stall and remained along the western border of Luhansk Oblast throughout the rest of 2022 and 2023 until offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast restarted in late 2024.

Timeline

Renewed offensive operations to capture Terny (28 December 2024 — 19 January 2025)

Footage released on 24 December 2024 indicates that Russian forces likely captured Ivano-Darivka. Two days later Russian media was bragging that their forces had taken control of ‘up to 40% of Terny. On 28 December, Russian Forces intensified their attacks in the village of Terny after a prolonged period. However, they failed to advance as their logistics were poor and the open fields surrounding Terny exposed Russian movements, leading to them being detected by a Ukrainian reconnaissance drone. Simultaneously, Russian forces made minor advances south of Vyimka.

On January 2, 2025, Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces crossed the Zherebets River and advanced into fields west of Ivanivka. They also asserted that Russian troops made gains in southern Terny. Simultaneously, Russian forces advanced in central Bilohorivka, while Ukrainian forces successfully recapture positions in central Terny.

On 4 January, Russian troops advanced across the Zherebets River and entered central Ivanivka. Two days later, they seized Ivanivka.

On January 14th 2025, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed to have taken Terny. However, this claim was not confirmed by ISW. However later on January 19th 2025, geolocated footage published on January 18th and January 19th indicated that Russian forces seized the village of Terny and Ivanivka which was Northeast of Lyman.

Stalemate (January 20 — February 11)

From January 20th to February 11th, despite Russian Forces conducting offensive operations, the front largely became stabled and a stalemate.

Renewed efforts to capture Bilohorivka and advance on Siversk (February 12 — March 24)

From February 12 2025, Russian Forces renewed efforts to seize the village of Bilohorivka which was intially claimed by Russia that it was already seized back in May 20th 2024 but this was not proven by geolocated footage as seen in the analysis report by ISW.

On February 12th and the following week, Russian Forces made advances around Siversk which included areas in Western and Northern Bilohorivka, Southeastern Fedorivka which is south of Siversk, and North of Mykolaivka.. Following that the dates of which the Russians advanced near Siversk and Bilohorivka, it is safe to say that Russian Forces have officially begun offensive operations around Siversk and Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast. Bilohorivka is also one of the very few villages in Luhansk oblast still not seized or recaptured by Russian Forces as of that date.

Later on 23rd January 2025, geolocated footage showed that Russian Forces have officially seized the village of Bilohorivka and the quarry south of Bilohorivka on that date. The unit who reportedly seized Bilohorivka was the 123rd Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade from the 3rd Guards Combined Arms Army. This made Hrekivka the last settlement in Luhansk Oblast that is yet to be captured by Russian Forces.

Following the capture, Russian Forces continued to make advances around the area of Siversk and the settlements surrounding Siversk. The advances happened to be in further west of Bilohorivka, north and south of Verkhnokamyanske which is east of Siversk, northwest of Sakko i Vantsetti which is southeast of Siversk, south of Hryhorivka which is northeast of Siversk and eastern Vasyukivka which is southwest of Siversk.

Russian bridgehead established across the Zherebets river and minor advances around Siversk (March 25 — present)

From January through March, Russia had been creating a bridgehead Northeast of Lyman. Russian Forces were reportedly expanding the bridgehead as part of an effort to seize and Lyman from the north and Borova shortly thereafter. Experts also stated that Russian troops could exploit their bridgehead in order to seize Lyman. Russian forces were also reportedly preparing a large-scale offensive in the Lyman direction and the bridgehead showed that Russian forces had crossed the Zherebets River. Pro-Ukrainian source Deepstate also reported that the situation in the Nove–Katerynivka–Nevske area continued to intensify and Russian units had tactical success on the direction leading to the villages of Nevske and Nove and that the village of Katerynivka was under constant pressure from the Russian forces.By 20th April 2025, Deepstate reported that Russian Forces had seized and occupied the village of Katerynivka, north of Lyman.After a very long operational pause at the Siversk Front, according to geolocated footage, Russian Forces made advances in the eastern outskirts of Hryhorivka which is northeast of Siversk.

On April 21st, Ukrainian military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko gave a brief frontline prognosis and stated that, "If anyone is hoping that Russian occupation forces will agree to a "ceasefire" or a reduction in the intensity of combat operations – these are just fantasies and nothing more." This also meant that despite the "Easter Truce", the truce was meant to be an interim phase to create conditions for further escalation along the Lyman-Kupyansk direction. Ukrainian officials also claimed that the goal was to divert forces from Donetsk region, where Russian forces have concentrated the 8th Combined Arms Army and a part of the 51st Combined Arms Army.Russian forces also reportedly used the truce to regroup and launch an large-scale infantry assault shortly after the end of the truce. Blyshchyk stated that , " A few hours after Putin announced the ceasefire, our positions came under massive artillery fire." He also claimed that Russian Forces exploited the lull to reposition units and prepared for renewed assaults during the truce.Ukrainian officials claimed that on victory day on May 9th, Russian Forces would potentially attack the Lyman Axis and that the Russia have ammassed forces near the city of Lyman and preparing for an offensive.

Later on the 1st of May, Russian Forces advanced in east of Katerynivka which is northeast of Lyman and to Pivnichna Street in northern Torske which is east of Lyman. Russian Forces also advanced eastern outskirts of Hryhorivka. Thus, this showed that Russian Forces advanced in both the Lyman and Siversk Axis in one day.

Sources also reported that since May 1st, 93 military engagements have been taken place along the frontline of which 17 attacks took place in the Lyman Axis near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodiazi, and toward Hrekivka and Zelena Dolyna and that 17 attacks are still ongoing. As for the Siversk Axis, only one military engagement took place and Russian Forces attacked Serebrianka and Verkhniokamianske.Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled all the Russian attacks and that Russian forces made no success and failed to make battlefield gains.

2 days later on May 3rd, based on geolocated footage, Russian Forces again advanced on both the Lyman and Siversk Axis. In the Lyman Axis, Russian Forces advanced north of Torske, which is east of Lyman. In the Siversk Axis, Russian Forces advanced in northeast Hryhorivka which is also Northeast of Siversk.Sources also confirmed those advances as "Localized gains" and that there was intense fighting going on near Lyman, Siversk and other fronts. On May 5th, sources reported that Russian Forces attacked Ukrainian positions 13 times near the settlements of Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Nove, Kolodiazi, Myrne, and in the direction of Zelena Dolyna and that there are still 5 clashes going on around Lyman. However, there were no reports about attacks from Russian Forces were recorded in the Siversk Axis, according to the same source.The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that there were clashes near Nove, Kopanky, Tverdokhlibove, Kolodyazi and towards Zelena Dolyna, Lypove, Olhivka and Ridkodub at the Lyman Axis.

On May 8th, since the start of Russia's "ceasefire" for victory day over Nazi Germany, sources reported that Russian Forces launched over 100 attacks along the entire frontline and among those attacks, 17 of those atacks took place in the Lyman Axis and 2 attacks happened in the Siversk Axis.

Analysis

In the Lyman axis, Russian Forces outnumbered Ukrainian forces by a 10:1 ratio, showing a massive Ukrainian disadvantage in manpower compared to Russian Forces. Following this, many sources claimed that the massive Russian manpower advantage led to Russian Forces being able to carry out successful attacks. Before Lyman was liberated in 2022, while it was still under Russian occupation, it served as one of the logistics and transport hub anchoring Russian military operations in the north of Donetsk Oblast. The recapture of Lyman would likely improve Russian logistics and supply hubs.

See also

• List of military engagements during the Russian invasion of Ukraine
• Eastern front of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
• Luhansk Oblast campaign