Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
Review
. 2012 Mar 1;11(3):191-200.
doi: 10.1038/nrd3681.

Diagnosing the decline in pharmaceutical R&D efficiency

Jack W Scannell  1 , Alex Blanckley, Helen Boldon, Brian Warrington
Affiliations
Review

Diagnosing the decline in pharmaceutical R&D efficiency

Jack W Scannell et al. Nat Rev Drug Discov. .

Abstract

The past 60 years have seen huge advances in many of the scientific, technological and managerial factors that should tend to raise the efficiency of commercial drug research and development (RD). Yet the number of new drugs approved per billion US dollars spent on RD has halved roughly every 9 years since 1950, falling around 80-fold in inflation-adjusted terms. There have been many proposed solutions to the problem of declining RD efficiency. However, their apparent lack of impact so far and the contrast between improving inputs and declining output in terms of the number of new drugs make it sensible to ask whether the underlying problems have been correctly diagnosed. Here, we discuss four factors that we consider to be primary causes, which we call the 'better than the Beatles' problem; the 'cautious regulator' problem; the 'throw money at it' tendency; and the 'basic research-brute force' bias. Our aim is to provoke a more systematic analysis of the causes of the decline in RD efficiency.

PubMed Disclaimer

Similar articles

  • Discontinued drugs in 2012: cardiovascular drugs.
    Zhao HP, Jiang HM, Xiang BR. Zhao HP, et al. Expert Opin Investig Drugs. 2013 Nov;22(11):1437-51. doi: 10.1517/13543784.2013.832198. Epub 2013 Aug 30. Expert Opin Investig Drugs. 2013. PMID: 23992034 Review.
  • R&D productivity rides again?
    Lendrem D, Senn SJ, Lendrem BC, Isaacs JD. Lendrem D, et al. Pharm Stat. 2015 Jan-Feb;14(1):1-3. doi: 10.1002/pst.1653. Epub 2014 Oct 22. Pharm Stat. 2015. PMID: 25336017 Review.
  • Pharmaceutical R&D: the road to positive returns.
    David E, Tramontin T, Zemmel R. David E, et al. Nat Rev Drug Discov. 2009 Aug;8(8):609-10. doi: 10.1038/nrd2948. Nat Rev Drug Discov. 2009. PMID: 19644471 No abstract available.
  • R&D efficiency of leading pharmaceutical companies - A 20-year analysis.
    Schuhmacher A, Wilisch L, Kuss M, Kandelbauer A, Hinder M, Gassmann O. Schuhmacher A, et al. Drug Discov Today. 2021 Aug;26(8):1784-1789. doi: 10.1016/j.drudis.2021.05.005. Epub 2021 May 19. Drug Discov Today. 2021. PMID: 34022459 Review.
  • Improving R&D productivity.
    Smietana K, Ekstrom L, Jeffery B, Møller M. Smietana K, et al. Nat Rev Drug Discov. 2015 Jul;14(7):455-6. doi: 10.1038/nrd4650. Epub 2015 Jun 12. Nat Rev Drug Discov. 2015. PMID: 26065405 No abstract available.
See all similar articles

Cited by

See all "Cited by" articles

References

    1. N Engl J Med. 2007 Jun 7;356(23):2388-98 - PubMed
    1. Curr Opin Struct Biol. 2006 Feb;16(1):127-36 - PubMed
    1. Med Res Rev. 1996 Jan;16(1):3-50 - PubMed
    1. Nat Biotechnol. 2007 Aug;25(8):945-6 - PubMed
    1. Nat Rev Drug Discov. 2011 Jun 24;10(7):507-19 - PubMed

MeSH terms

Substances