Slotkin Leads in Michigan

ActiVote’s September 5, 2024 Michigan U.S. Senate poll shows that Democratic U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin leads against her Republican challenger former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers by 6.4%. 

The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 6, 2024 and September 5, 2024 with a median field date of August 21. 

Please note that Michigan does not include party affiliation in their voter registration. Therefore, our D/R/I categories are estimates and less accurate than for states which do include party affiliation in their voter registration. As a result, the number of crossover votes will seem higher than expected.

Also note that our unweighted sample for Black voters did not meet the threshold for reporting (nor did the unweighted and weighted sample for Latinos). Therefore, Black and Latino subsamples are included in the overall result, but not separately shown in the table.

Slotkin has a clear lead among urban voters, while rural and suburban voters are approximately tied between the candidates. Slotkin leads among younger voters, while Rogers leads among older voters. Slotkin leads among women, while Rogers leads among men. Both lead comfortably among those affiliated with their party, while they are tied among independents. Slotkin has a small lead among White voters.

Slotkin leads among low-income voters. The other income and education categories are somewhat evenly distributed, with a somewhat uncommon pattern where the Republican candidate has a small lead with higher educated voters, while the Democratic candidate leads among those with less education. We caution to read too much into that, given the small sample size (and thus high variance) of each of these subcategories.

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Slotkin and Rogers among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the swing state of Michigan the distribution of right-leaning and left-leaning voters slightly deviates from the national distribution.

Both dominate their core constituencies: Slotkin takes 97% of the left and moderate left voters, while Rogers takes 94% of the right and moderate right voters. Slotkin has a 22% lead among centrists. 

Comparisons

In November 2020, incumbent Democratic Senator Gary Peters narrowly beat his Republican challenger John James by 1.7%. In November 2018, incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow beat the same Republican challenger, John James, by 6.5%.

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