Composite image of alose up the clasped hands of a cardinal in robes, with a cross worn around the neck, a group of cardinals in robes photographed from behind. Red dots are at the top and bottom of the image to represent the data visualisation used in this article

Who will choose the next pope?

This conclave is more global and unpredictable than ever - here's why

By Erwan Rivault, Jess Carr & Muskeen Liddar World

In secrecy and prayer, a select group of cardinals will decide who will be the next religious leader of over a billion Catholics worldwide.

What do we know about these men, most of whom are electing a pope for the first time?

A circle pack visualisation of the 252 cardinals in the 2025 conclave

There are 252 cardinals, all of them men, from across the world.

A circle pack visualisation of the 252 cardinals in the 2025 conclave with Pietro Parolin of Italy (70 years old), Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines (67 years old), and Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the DR Congo (65 years old) highlighted

Could the next Pope be from Asia? The first from Africa since the fifth century? Or someone prominent under Pope Francis?

A beeswarm plot of the ages of the cardinals in the 2025 conclave.

The College of Cardinals spans more than 50 years in age.

A beeswarm plot of the ages of the cardinals in the 2025 conclave, with the oldest, Angelo Acerbi at 99 years old, and youngest, Mykola Bychok at 45 years old, highlighted. The average age is indicated at 77.5 years old.

The youngest is Ukraine-born 45-year-old Cardinal Mykola Bychok from Australia. The oldest is 99-year-old Italian Cardinal Angelo Acerbi. However, he won’t get to choose the new pope.

A beeswarm plot of the ages of the cardinals in the 2025 conclave. There is a line at 80 years old, with those under the line (ie less than 80 years old) in red and those above the line (ie older than 80 years old) in grey. There are three cardinals under 80 which are not voting.

Only those aged under 80 years can vote. That leaves 133 taking part not including a cardinal who has withdrawn and another two absent for health reasons.

A unit chart of the voting cardinals per region. Europe has 52, Asia has 23, South America has 17, Africa has 17, North America has 16, Central America and the Caribbean have 4, and Oceania has 4.

Almost four-in-ten voting cardinals are from Europe. Asian cardinals account for nearly a sixth of the men voting in the conclave.

A unit chart of the voting cardinals per region. Europe has 52, Asia has 23, South America has 17, Africa has 17, North America has 16, Central America and the Caribbean have 4, and Oceania has 4. Cardinals selected by Pope Francis are highlighted. By region Francis selected 40 in Europe, 20 in Asia, 19 in South America, 15 in Africa, 10 in North America, 4 in Central America and the Caribbean, and 4 in Oceania.

Eight-in-10 voting cardinals were appointed by Francis.

Who will be the next pope? That decision will be made by 133 cardinals who will begin meeting in conclave on Wednesday afternoon in the 15th century Sistine Chapel.

This conclave is different from others gone by.

It will have a more global perspective than the one that selected Pope Francis 12 years ago.

For the first time, 15 nations will have a voting cardinal including Haiti, the Central African Republic, Myanmar and Tonga.

Italy has 17 voting cardinals, the most out of any country.

At his last consistory - a meeting of the College of Cardinals - in 2024, Pope Francis appointed 21 new cardinals. All but one were under 80 years old and eligible to vote. And a quarter were from South America.

 

Europe and North America see decline in voting cardinals

Including cardinals appointed by Pope Benedict XVI and Pope John Paul II, the number from Europe and North America voting in the conclave has fallen since 2013.

The number of cardinal electors from Asia has more than doubled and other regions have also seen a rise.

Chart showing the number of voting cardinals per continent in the last conclave of 2013, and on the coming one. Europe and North America are the only two continents that see a decrease in number of voting cardinals, while all other continents see an increase. The biggest increase is for Asia, from 10 cardinals in 2013, to 23 in 2025.

Does the rise in cardinals from Asia and Africa mean we might see an Asian or an African pope?

Some African Catholics believe that, after over 1,500 years, it is time for another African pontiff, while others feel that the nationality of the pope does not matter.

double bar chart, with one bar for percentage of the world's catholics in each continent, and on the right, percentage of voting cardinals from this continent. 27% of the wrold's catholics are from South America, but only 13% of the voting cardinals.

Francis was the first pope from South America. The region has a mismatch in representation: a quarter of the world's Catholics but only 13% of voting cardinals.

double bar chart, with one bar for percentage of the world's catholics in each continent, and on the right, percentage of voting cardinals from this continent. Africa and Central America and the Carribean are under-represented

It's possible the next pope could be from Africa, which, like Central America & the Caribbean is under-represented.

double bar chart, with one bar for percentage of the world's catholics in each continent, and on the right, percentage of voting cardinals from this continent. Europe, Asia, North America and Oceania are over-represented

Other places like Asia, North America and Oceania have a larger share of voting cardinals compared to their proportion of baptised Catholics. Europe has one-fifth of the world’s Catholics but two-fifths of voting cardinals.

Pope Francis leaves a Catholic Church that is more global than the one he inherited in 2013.

Whether that is reflected in the choice of the new Pope or not is a decision that rests in the hands of the voting cardinals.

No-one outside the Sistine Chapel will know anything until white smoke rises from a chimney on the chapel roof. All that’s left to do is wait.

With a reshaped College of Cardinals and no clear frontrunner, the BBC's religion editor Aleem Maqbool explains why this Conclave is harder than ever to predict.

Additional reporting:

Daniel Wainwright and Tom Finn

Cover design:

Louise Hunter

Development:

Dan Smith

Data:

The Holy See

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