Ballotpedia's Top 15 elections to watch, 2018

By Ballotpedia's marquee team
October 30, 2018

We've compiled a list of 15 elections we watched on November 6, 2018, including races for the U.S. House, U.S. Senate, governorships, state legislatures, and statewide ballot measures.

The top 15 elections are grouped by race type and ordered alphabetically. Know of an election you think should be included? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org.

See more of our 2018 election analysis by visiting our Election Analysis Hub.

Top 15 elections to watch

U.S. House

See also: United States House of Representatives elections, 2018

Maine's 2nd Congressional District: Incumbent Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R), state Rep. Jared Golden (D), Tiffany Bond (I) and Will Hoar (I) ran to represent the 2nd District, which , as of 2018, encompassed nearly all of Maine except the southwest corner and Portland. Heading into the election, Poliquin was the only Republican representing a U.S. House seat in New England. Before Poliquin was first elected in 2014, Democrats had held the seat for 20 years. Poliquin won re-election in 2016 by 9.6 percentage points.

Minnesota's 1st Congressional District: Former Obama administration official Dan Feehan (D) and former U.S. Treasury official Jim Hagedorn (R) ran for the 1st District, which , as of 2018, covered all of southern Minnesota's border with Iowa. In 2016, incumbent Tim Walz (D) defeated Hagedorn by 1 percentage point, and Donald Trump (R) carried the district by 15 percentage points, making it one of 13 Democratic-held seats up in 2018 that Trump won. After Walz said he would run for governor in 2018, the seat became a rare opportunity for a Republican pick-up.

Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District: U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) and Wallace Global Fund director Scott Wallace (D) ran for the newly-drawn 1st District, north of Philadelphia, after the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ordered the state's congressional map redrawn in February 2018. As of 2018, the new 1st District was composed of a majority of the old 8th District, which Fitzpatrick was first elected to represent in 2016. The old 8th District voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 by 0.2 percentage points. The new 1st District voted for Hillary Clinton (D) by 2.0 percentage points. The redrawing of the congressional map changed the presidential results in Pennsylvania's 18 congressional districts from 12 Trump districts and six Clinton districts to 10 Trump districts and eight Clinton districts.

Texas' 32nd Congressional District: Incumbent Rep. Pete Sessions (R), civil rights attorney Colin Allred (D), and Melina Baker (L) ran to represent the 32nd District, which , as of 2018, was located in the Dallas metro area. Sessions, the chairman of the House Rules Committee, was first elected in 2002. Although Sessions did not face a Democratic opponent in 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won the district by 1.9 percentage points, making it one of 26 Republican-held seats up in 2018 that Clinton won.

U.S. Senate

See also: United States Senate elections, 2018

Arizona: U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D), U.S. Rep. Martha McSally (R), and Angela Green (G) ran to replace Jeff Flake (R) in the United States Senate. Although Arizona had not sent a Democrat to the Senate in 30 years, the state's growing Latino population, Flake's retirement, and Donald Trump's (R) 3.5 percentage point win in the 2016 presidential election led political observers to call it a toss-up in 2018.^[1]

Florida: Incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D) faced term-limited Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) for one of Florida's Senate seats. Nelson, who was first elected in 2000 and re-elected in 2012 by 13 percentage points, was Florida's only Democratic statewide officeholder, at the time of the election.. Scott was elected governor in 2010 and 2014 by about 1 percentage point each time. As of September 30, Scott and Nelson had raised more than $78 million combined, with Scott taking in more than $54 million and Nelson taking in nearly $24 million.

Indiana: Incumbent Sen. Joe Donnelly (D), former state Rep. Mike Braun (R), and business consultant Lucy Brenton (L) ran to represent Indiana in the Senate. Donnelly was one of 10 Senate Democrats running for re-election in a state Donald Trump (R) won in 2016. Of the 10 states, Indiana had the 4th highest margin for Trump, voting for him by 19.2 percentage points. Donnelly was first elected in 2012, defeating State Auditor Richard Mourdock (R) by 5.7 percentage points.

Gubernatorial races

See also: Gubernatorial elections, 2018

Alaska: Former U.S. Sen. Mark Begich (D), former state Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R), and William Toien (L) ran to be the next Governor of Alaska. Incumbent Bill Walker (I), who was first elected in 2014, had been running, but he dropped out on October 19, 2018. Walker said he could not win a three-way race and that staying in would ensure a win by Dunleavy. In order to form a trifecta, Republicans needed to win the gubernatorial election and three seats in the state House elections.

Florida: Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D), former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis (R), and five others ran to replace Rick Scott (R) as Governor of Florida. Gillum and DeSantis won their respective primaries on August 28 even though former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham (D) and Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam (R) entered the primaries as frontrunners. Although Florida was a swing state in presidential elections from 2000 to 2016, the last time the state elected a Democratic governor was 1994. Heading into the election, Florida was a Republican trifecta.

Kansas: State Sen. Laura Kelly (D), Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R), businessman Greg Orman (I), and six other candidates ran to be the next Governor of Kansas. Kobach defeated incumbent Gov. Jeff Colyer (R) in the August 7 Republican primary. Political observers said Orman, who unsuccessfully challenged Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts (R) in 2014, was more likely to draw votes away from Kelly than Kobach.^[2] Heading into the election, Kansas was a Republican trifecta.

State legislatures

See also: State legislative elections, 2018

Connecticut State Senate: Democrats had an 18-18 tie-breaking majority in the Connecticut State Senate due to their control of the lieutenant governor's office. Democrats held two battleground districts (4 and 29), and Republicans held four battleground districts (13, 17, 24, and 26). Republicans needed to win the state Senate, state House, or governor's office, all battlegrounds in 2018, to break Connecticut's Democratic trifecta.

Colorado State Senate: Republicans had an 18-16-1 majority in the Colorado State Senate. Democrats held three battleground districts (5, 11, and 22), Republicans held two battleground districts (16 and 24), and Cheri Jahn, who left the Democratic Party and became an independent in December 2017, held District 20, also a battleground. Democrats needed to win the state Senate and hold the state House and the governor's office, all battlegrounds in 2018, to gain a trifecta.

Minnesota State Senate District 13: Former Sartell Mayor Joe Perske (D) and state Rep. Jeff Howe (R) ran in the special election for Minnesota State Senate District 13. The special election decided partisan control of the Minnesota State Senate, where each party controlled 33 seats as of November 2018. The rest of the state Senate was up for election in 2020. The seat became vacant in May 2018 when incumbent Michelle Fischbach (R), the president of the state Senate, became Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota after Gov. Mark Dayton (D) appointed incumbent Lieutenant Gov. Tina Smith (D) to replace U.S. Sen. Al Franken (D). Fischbach, who was first elected in 1996, was last re-elected in 2016 by 37.3 percentage points. Donald Trump (R) won the district in 2016 by 34.1 percentage points.

New York State Senate: Republicans had an effective 32-31 majority in the New York State Senate due to a coalition between the chamber's 31 Republicans and Democratic state Sen. Simcha Felder. Democrats held two battleground districts (8 and 9), and Republicans held 10 battleground districts (3, 5, 6, 7, 39, 40, 42, 43, 50, and 58). Democrats needed to win the state Senate to have a trifecta. Other than the Democratic trifecta that formed after the 2008 elections, Democrats had not had a trifecta in New York since 1934.^[3]^[4]

Ballot measures

See also: 2018 ballot measures

2018 ballot measures: Voters in 37 states decided 155 statewide ballot measures in 2018, and we couldn't pick just one to watch. Here's our list of the top 15 ballot measures to watch in 2018.