Ballotpedia's Top 15 Elections to Watch, 2024
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October 17, 2024
We've compiled a list of 15 elections we watched in November 2024, including races for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governors, other state executives, state supreme court judgeships, and state legislatures.
The Ballotpedia editorial department selected these elections based on past election results, unique election-specific circumstances, and election race ratings. The final selections include a mix of federal, state, and local races.
Here's a list of the 15 elections we're watching. Click on a link to learn more about each election.
- U.S. Senate election in Michigan
- U.S. Senate election in Ohio
- California's 13th Congressional District election
- New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District election
- New York's 17th Congressional District election
- Oregon's 5th Congressional District election
- Washington's 3rd Congressional District election
- New Hampshire gubernatorial election
- Attorney General of North Carolina election
- Alaska House of Representatives elections
- Arizona State Legislature elections
- Michigan House of Representatives elections
- New Hampshire State Senate elections
- Michigan Supreme Court elections
- Ohio Supreme Court elections
See more of our 2024 election analysis by visiting our Election Analysis Hub. To view previous iterations of this list, click on the links below:
- Top 15 Elections to Watch, 2023
- Top 15 Elections to Watch, 2022
- Top 15 Elections to Watch, 2021
- Top 15 Elections to Watch, 2020
Top 15 elections to watch
U.S. Senate
- See also: United States Senate elections, 2024
Thirty-three of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate were up for regular election. The winners were sworn in to office on January 3, 2025. There was also two special elections on November 5, 2024 One special election was held to elect a member who will complete the final two years of Sen. Ben Sasse's (R-Neb.) six-year term that began in 2020. Sasse resigned on January 8, 2023.[1] The other special election was held to fill the final weeks of the six-year term that Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) was elected to in 2018. Feinstein died on September 29, 2023.[2] That U.S. Senate seat was also up for regular election in 2024, for a total of 34 individual seats.
Michigan
Elissa Slotkin (D), Mike Rogers (R), and four other candidates are running to succeed retiring incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) who was first elected in 2000. Slotkin is a former Middle East analyst with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) who has served in the U.S. House since 2019.[3] Rogers is a former special agent with the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) who served in the U.S. House from 2001 to 2015.[4] According to the Associated Press' Joey Cappelletti, "Republicans welcome Rogers as a moderate, sensible voice who has a legitimate chance to seize the unexpected opportunity that arose with Stabenow’s retirement, in a state where they haven’t been winning much lately. Democrats, meanwhile, think Slotkin could emerge as a leading voice of the next generation of party leaders."[5]
As of October 2024, four major election forecasters differed in their ratings for the race, with one rating it Tilt Democratic, two rating it Lean Democratic, and one rating it Toss-up. The Detroit Free Press'' Todd Spangler wrote that "The last time a Senate seat was open in Michigan was in 2014. Republicans sense a chance to win this year but if they do, it will mark the first time since 1994 a Democrat has lost a U.S. Senate race in the state."[6]
Ohio
Incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), Bernie Moreno (R), and Don Kissick (L) are running. Brown was first elected in 2006 after he defeated then-Sen. Mike DeWine 56% to 44%. He won re-election in 2012 by a margin of six percentage points, and in 2018 by a margin of seven. Moreno is a businessman with a background in auto sales.[7] According to The Hill's Al Weaver, "Brown maintained a consistent lead throughout the summer, buoyed by an ad bonanza in an attempt to define Moreno. But Republican forces have answered in the past month, with Moreno going up with ads and groups run by top lieutenants of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) set to spend $80 million there between Labor Day and Election Day."[8]
As of October 2024, four major election forecasters rated the race Toss-up. Ohio is one of three states that is holding a U.S. Senate election this year with a Democratic incumbent that former President Donald Trump carried in the 2020 presidential election. Ohio is also one of five states with a split Senate delegation.[9]
U.S. House
All 435 seats in the U.S. House were up for election. Republicans took control of the U.S. House following the 2022 elections, when Republicans won 222 seats to Democrats' 213. As of October 2024, Republicans had a 220-212 majority in the U.S. House with three vacancies. Democrats needed to gain a net of five districts to win a majority in the chamber.
California's 13th Congressional District
Incumbent Rep. John Duarte (R) and Adam Gray (D) are running in a rematch for a seat Republicans won control of from Democrats in 2022. In 2022, Duarte defeated Gray by 0.4 percentage points for the then-open district. Additionally, this is one of 19 Republican-held U.S. House districts up for election this year that President Joe Biden (D) won in the 2020 presidential election. As of October 2024, four major election forecasters rated the race Toss-up. The Los Angeles Times’ Julia Wick wrote that although Biden won the district in 2020, “Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Dahle beat Gov. Gavin Newsom by more than eight points in the district in 2022, a partisan see-sawing that speaks to the large number of independent voters in the district as well as strong Republican turnout in the 2022 midterms.”
New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District
Incumbent Rep. Gabriel Vasquez (D) and Yvette Herrell (R) are running in a rematch for a seat Democrats won in 2022. In 2022, Vasquez defeated then-Rep. Herrell 50.3% to 49.6%. As of October 2024, four major election forecasters differed in their ratings for the race, with forecasts ranging from Likely Democratic to Toss-up. NPR’s Claudia Grisales wrote that “two of the biggest issues in this election—immigration and abortion rights—are at the heart of a tightly-contested U.S. House race.[10]
New York's 17th Congressional District
Incumbent Rep. Michael Lawler (R/Conservative Party), Mondaire Jones (D), and Anthony Frascone (Working Families Party) are running for a seat Republicans won in 2022. Jones represented the district from 2021 to 2023, but ran in New York's 10th Congressional District in 2022 due to redistricting. As of October 2024, four major election forecasters differed in their ratings for the election with one rating it Tilt Republican, one rating it Lean Republican, and two rating it Toss-up. Additionally, this is one of 19 Republican-held U.S. House districts up for election this year that President Joe Biden (D) won in the 2020 presidential election.
Oregon's 5th Congressional District
Incumbent Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R), Janelle Bynum (D), and four other candidates are running for a seat that Republicans won from Democrats in 2022. Additionally, this is one of 19 Republican-held U.S. House districts up for election this year that President Joe Biden (D) won in the 2020 presidential election. As of October 2024, four independent election forecasters rated the race Toss-up. Democratic lawmakers represented the district from 1997 until 2023 when Chavez-DeRemer assumed office.[11] According to Central Oregon Daily News’ Claire Rush and Hallie Golden, "Democrats hold a slight advantage in voter registration in the 5th, but roughly a third of voters are unaffiliated, and the two candidates have sought to appeal to the district's purple hue."[12]
Washington's 3rd Congressional District
Incumbent Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez (D) and Joe Kent (R) are running in a rematch for a seat Democrats won from Republicans in 2022. In 2022, Gluesenkamp Pérez defeated Kent by 0.8 percentage points. Then-Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler placed third in the top-two primary and did not advance to the general election. Additionally, this is one of seven Democratic-held U.S. House districts up for election this year that then-President Donald Trump (R) won in the 2020 presidential election. As of October 2024, four major election forecasters differed in their ratings for the race, with one rating it Lean Republican and three rating it Toss-up.
Gubernatorial elections
- See also: Gubernatorial elections, 2024
There were 11 gubernatorial offices on the ballot. The governor is the political and ceremonial head of each state and he or she may also assume additional roles, such as the commander-in-chief of the National Guard when the role is not federalized. The governor may also have the ability to commute or pardon a criminal sentence. Heading into the 2024 elections, 27 states have Republican governors and 23 have Democratic governors. Eight of the states holding gubernatorial elections this year have Republican governors and three have Democratic governors.
New Hampshire
Joyce Craig (D), Kelly Ayotte (R), and Stephen Villee (L) are running to succeed retiring incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu (R). Craig is a former account executive at an advertising agency who served as the mayor of Manchester from 2018 to 2024.[13] Ayotte is an attorney who represented New Hampshire in the U.S. Senate from 2011 to 2017.
New Hampshire is one of 23 states with a Republican trifecta. The state government became a trifecta in 2021 when Republican majorities took control of both legislative chambers. According to Ballotpedia's annual trifecta vulnerability ratings, the state’s trifecta is highly vulnerable going into the 2024 election due to toss-up gubernatorial race and the close majorities in both legislative chambers. As of October 2024, three independent election forecasters rated the race Toss-up. According to CNN’s Simone Pathe, the race “will test the endurance of ticket-splitting in a state that’s more prone to it than most but that’s also been trending bluer at the federal level. Hillary Clinton carried New Hampshire by less than half a point in 2016; Joe Biden won it by 7 points four years later.”[14]
Other state executive elections
- See also: State executive official elections, 2024
State executive offices up for election on Nov. 5 included nine lieutenant gubernatorial offices, 10 attorney general offices, and seven secretary of state offices. Including down-ballot races, there were 166 state executive seats up for election across 30 states on Nov. 5. State executives act in many capacities according to the powers granted to them by their state's constitution. They are also charged with implementing and enforcing laws made by state legislatures. There are 748 executive seats spread across 13 distinct types of offices in the United States.[15]
Attorney General of North Carolina
Jeff Jackson (D) and Dan Bishop (R) are running to succeed incumbent Josh Stein (D) who is running for governor. The attorney general is a state-level position in all 50 states who serves as the state's chief legal officer. The attorney general is responsible for enforcing state law and advising the state government on legal matters. In many states, attorneys general play a large role in the law enforcement process. This is one of 10 elections—five Republican-held and five Democratic-held—for attorneys general that took place in 2024.
Jackson and Bishop have both served in the U.S. House since 2023. The Associated Press' Geoff Mulvihill wrote that "over the past decade, a pipeline from Congress to attorney general has developed. Five sitting attorneys general—Maryland’s Anthony Brown, Minnesota’s Keith Ellison, Arkansas’ Tim Griffin, Idaho’s Raul Labrador and Indiana’s Todd Rokita—were all previously in Congress."[16] Additionally, Mulvihill wrote that "the attorney general job has been a springboard to higher office."[16]
Heading into the 2024 election, North Carolina has a Democratic triplex, with Democrats controlling the offices of the governor, secretary of state, and attorney general. All three offices are up for election in 2024. According to the Raleigh News & Observer’s Avi Bajpai, “the last time a Republican won a race for attorney general was in 1896. Recent contests for the state’s top law enforcement position have been exceedingly close, however. In 2020, [Josh Stein] defeated Republican Jim O'Neill by just 13,622 votes, or 0.26%.”
State legislatures
- See also: State legislative elections, 2024
There will be regularly-scheduled elections for 85 of the country's 99 state legislative chambers. Elections in those 85 chambers represented 5,807 of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats (79%). Heading into the 2024 elections, Republicans controlled 54.87% of all state legislative seats nationally, while Democrats held 44.22%. Republicans held a majority in 56 chambers, and Democrats held the majority in 41 chambers. Two chambers—the Alaska Senate and the Alaska House of Representatives—are organized under a multipartisan, power-sharing coalition.
Alaska House of Representatives
Republicans have a 22-13 majority in the Alaska House of Representatives with four independents and one nonpartisan member. A multipartisan governing coalition has controlled the state House since 2016. According to the Alaska Beacon's James Brooks, "While 21 votes is enough to formally control the House, lawmakers have repeatedly said that a larger majority — on the order of 23 or more members — is necessary to govern comfortably."[17] All 60 seats are up for election this year. As of October 2024, CNAnalysis rated the legislative races Toss-up.
Alaska is one of 10 states with a divided government, and has held a divided government since 2015, when then-Gov. Bill Walker switched his party affiliation from Republican to independent. According to Ballotpedia’s annual trifecta vulnerability ratings, the state is one of two where Republicans could establish a trifecta.
Arizona State Legislature
- See also: Arizona House of Representatives elections, 2024
- See also: Arizona State Senate elections, 2024
- See also: Arizona House of Representatives elections, 2024
Republicans have held 16 of the 30 seats in the Arizona Senate and 31 of the 60 seats in the Arizona House of Representatives since after the 2022 elections, giving the party a two-seat majority in both chambers over that period. All 30 seats in the state Senate and all 60 seats in the state House are up for election this year. Republicans cannot lose any seats in either chamber and still maintain their majorities, while Democrats need to win two net seats in both chambers to gain majorities in the chambers. As of October 2024, CNAnalysis rated the legislative races for both chambers Toss-up.
Arizona is one of 10 states with a divided government. The state government has held that status since 2023 when Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) assumed office. According to Ballotpedia’s annual trifecta vulnerability ratings, the state is one of five where Democrats could establish a trifecta.
Michigan House of Representatives
Democrats have held 56 of the 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives since after the 2022 elections, giving the party a two-seat majority over that period. All 110 seats are up for election this year. Democrats can not lose any seats and still maintain their majority, while Republicans need to win two net seats to gain a majority in the chamber. As of October 2024, CNAnalysis rated the legislative races Toss-up.
Michigan is one of 17 states with a Democratic trifecta. Michigan has held that status since 2023 when Democratic majorities assumed office in both legislative chambers. According to Ballotpedia’s annual trifecta vulnerability ratings, the state’s trifecta is moderately vulnerable.
New Hampshire State Senate
Republicans have held 14 of the 24 seats in the New Hampshire Senate since after the 2022 elections, giving the party a four-seat majority over that period. All 24 seats are up for election this year. Republicans can only lose one seat while still maintaining their majority. On the other side of the aisle, Democrats need to win three net seats to gain a majority in the chamber. As of October 2024, CNAnalysis rated the legislative races Toss-up.
New Hampshire is one of 23 states with a Republican trifecta. The state has held that status since 2021 when Republican majorities assumed office in both legislative chambers. According to Ballotpedia's annual trifecta vulnerability ratings, the state’s trifecta is highly vulnerable going into the 2024 election due to toss-up gubernatorial race and the close majorities in both legislative chambers.
State supreme court elections
- See also: State supreme court elections, 2024
Thirty-three states are holding state supreme court elections in 2024. In total, 82 of the 344 seats on state supreme courts are up for election. Of these seats, 61 are held by nonpartisan justices, 15 are held by Republican justices, and six are held by Democratic justices. According to Bolts' Daniel Nichanian, "Michigan and Ohio are the two states where a supreme court’s partisan majority could flip outright. Democrats are defending a narrow edge in Michigan; the GOP is doing the same in Ohio."[18]
Michigan Supreme Court
- See also: Michigan Supreme Court elections, 2024
The seats of two Michigan Supreme Court justices are up for nonpartisan election. Andrew Fink and Kimberly Thomas are running for a full eight-year term. Incumbent David Viviano is not running for re-election. Incumbent Kyra Harris Bolden and Patrick W. O'Grady are running in a special election. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) appointed Bolden in November 2022. The winner of the special election will serve the remainder of Bridget Mary McCormack's term, which ends in 2028.
Although, supreme court elections in Michigan are nonpartisan candidates are nominated through a party convention. Thomas and Bolden are affiliated with the Democratic Party. Fink and O'Grady are affiliated with the Republican Party. Heading into the election, Michigan's supreme court was made up of three Republican justices and four Democratic justices. Republicans need to win both seats to gain a majority and Democrats need to win one seat to retain their majority. According to the Associated Press, "Republicans have framed the races as a fight to stop government overreach, while Democrats say it is a battle to preserve reproductive rights."[19]
Ohio Supreme Court
- See also: Ohio Supreme Court elections, 2024
The seats of three Ohio Supreme Court justices are up for partisan election. In one contest, two incumbent justices—Melody Stewart (D) and Joseph Deters (R)—are running against each other for a seat that carries with it a full, six-year term on the court. In the race for Deters’ open seat, Lisa Forbes (D) is facing Dan Hawkins (R). Justice Michael Donnelly (D) is facing Megan Shanahan (R).
Heading into the election, Ohio's supreme court was made up of four Republican justices and three Democratic justices. Democrats need to win all three seats to gain a majority and Republicans need to win one seat to retain their majority. As of 2024, Republicans have held a majority on the court since 1986.[20]
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Footnotes
- ↑ Siouxland News, "Nebraska's Ben Sasse resigning from US Senate," December 5, 2022
- ↑ CNN, "Dianne Feinstein announces she won’t run for reelection in 2024," February 14, 2023
- ↑ LinkedIn, "Elissa Slotkin on LinkedIn," accessed October 16, 2024
- ↑ Mike Rogers campaign website, "Meet Mike," accessed October 16, 2024
- ↑ Associated Press, "The unexpected, under-the-radar Senate race in Michigan that could determine control of the chamber," May 3, 2024
- ↑ The Detroit Free Press, "Michigan Voter Guide: Key Races," July 15, 2024
- ↑ Cleveland.com, "Who is Bernie Moreno? Meet the Ohio car tycoon who could end up getting elected to the U.S. Senate" October 15, 2023
- ↑ The Hill, "Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip," October 14, 2024
- ↑ Business Insider, "Five states will have politically-split Senate delegations in the new Congress, reflecting the nation's continued partisan polarization," January 2, 2023
- ↑ NPR, "The contest in one New Mexico swing district mirrors a larger, anxious electorate," September 21, 2024
- ↑ Govtrack.us, "Historical List of Members of Congress," accessed September 10, 2024
- ↑ Central Oregon Daily News, "Bynum vs. Chavez-DeRemer among 2 NW Congressional races that could decide House control," October 14, 2024
- ↑ Business NH Magazine, "Meet the New Manchester Mayor: Joyce Craig,' February 28, 2018
- ↑ CNN, "Nation’s most competitive governor’s race tests the power of ticket-splitters in New Hampshire," September 29, 2024
- ↑ There are 13 state executive offices as Ballotpedia defines the term, however there are other executive offices in some states that are not covered by Ballotpedia.
- ↑ 16.0 16.1 Associated Press, "They’re a path to becoming governor, but attorney general jobs are now a destination, too," February 28, 2024
- ↑ Alaska Beacon, "After Alaska’s primary election, here’s how the state’s legislative races are shaping up," September 6, 2024
- ↑ Bolts, "Your State-by-State Guide to the 2024 Supreme Court Elections," April 3, 2024
- ↑ Associated Press, "Michigan GOP nominates judge for Supreme Court after man charged in election tampering drops out," August 24, 2024
- ↑ Ohio Capital Journal, "Three Ohio Supreme Court races on the November ballot will have a huge impact in the coming years," August 27, 2024
