Ballotpedia's Top 15 elections to watch, 2022
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September 27, 2022
We've compiled a list of 15 elections we watched on November 8, 2022, including races for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governors, other state executives, state supreme court judgeships, state legislatures, and mayor.
These elections were selected by members of Ballotpedia's editorial department based on past election results, unique election-specific circumstances, and race ratings published by elections forecasters. The final selections were made with the goal of including a mix of federal, state, and local races in mind.
The top 15 elections are grouped by race type and ordered alphabetically. Know of an election you think should be included? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org.
See more of our 2022 election analysis by visiting our Election Analysis Hub.
Top 15 elections to watch
U.S. Senate
- See also: United States Senate elections, 2022
Thirty-four of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate were up for regular election. Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 34 regular elections in 2022 began their six-year terms on January 3, 2023. Two special elections also took place on November 8, 2022. One special election was held to fill the final four years of Sen. Jim Inhofe's (R-Okla.) six-year term that began in 2021. Inhofe announced his resignation effective January 3, 2023.[1] The other special election was held to fill the final weeks of the six-year term that Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) was elected to in 2016. That U.S. Senate seat was also up for regular election in 2022, for a total of 35 individual seats up. Fourteen seats held by Democrats and 21[2] seats held by Republicans were up for election in 2022.
Arizona
Incumbent Mark Kelly (D), Blake Masters (R), and Marc Victor (L) ran in the general election for one of Arizona's U.S. Senate seats. As of August 2022, three independent election forecasters rated the race Toss-up. Kelly took office in December 2020 after defeating incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R), 51.2% to 48.8%, in a special election in November 2020.[3] In 2018, Kyrsten Sinema (D) defeated McSally, 50.0% to 47.6%, for the state's other U.S. Senate seat. The two most recent presidential elections in Arizona were similarly close. President Joe Biden (D) carried the state over President Donald Trump (R), 49.4% to 49.1%, in the 2020 presidential election. Trump won the state in the 2016 presidential election, 48.7% to 45.1%. Before joining Congress, Kelly served as a U.S. Navy pilot and a NASA astronaut. Masters is a venture capitalist who served as COO of Thiel Capital from 2018 to 2022.
Georgia
Incumbent Raphael Warnock (D), Herschel Walker (R), and Chase Oliver (L) ran to represent Georgia in the U.S. Senate. Warnock defeated Kelly Loeffler (R) in a runoff election on January 5, 2021, 51% to 49%. Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed Loeffler to this seat in 2019 after former U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) resigned for health reasons. Warnock and Jon Ossoff—who defeated David Perdue (R), 50.6% to 49.4% in a runoff for the state's other Senate seat on the same day—became the first Democrats to represent Georgia in the U.S. Senate since 2005.[4] In Georgia, a general election advances to a runoff between the two top finishers if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote. Warnock serves as the senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. also served as pastor. Walker is a Hall of Fame professional football player who attended the University of Georgia, played in the National Football League, and owned two food-supply businesses.
Pennsylvania
John Fetterman (D), Mehmet Oz (R), and six other candidates ran in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate election. Incumbent Senator Pat Toomey (R)—who was first elected in 2010—did not seek re-election. The past two presidential elections in Pennsylvania were decided by less than two percentage points. Pennsylvania is one of two states in 2022, along with Wisconsin, where Republicans are defending a seat in a state that Joe Biden (D) won in 2020. CBS News' Sarah Ewall-Wice wrote, "The Senate race in Pennsylvania is a crucial battleground for both parties fighting over who will control the Senate after the November elections. Democrats see it as a possible pickup, with GOP Senator Pat Toomey retiring."[5] Roll Call's Niels Lesniewski wrote, "Keeping the seat in Republican hands is an important part of the party's effort to flip control of the 50-50 Senate."[6]
Wisconsin
Incumbent U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R), Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes (D), and write-in candidate Scott Aubart (American Independent Party) ran in the general election to represent Wisconsin in the U.S. Senate. Johnson was first elected in 2010, defeating then-incumbent Sen. Russ Feingold (D), 52% to 47%. Johnson won re-election in 2016 in a rematch with Feingold, 50% to 47%. In 2018, incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) defeated Leah Vukmir (R), 55% to 45%, for the state's other U.S. Senate seat. The two most recent presidential elections in Wisconsin were both decided by less than one percentage point. In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden (D) won the state over then-incumbent President Donald Trump (R), 49.5% to 48.8%. In the 2016 election, Trump carried Wisconsin with 47.2% of the vote to Hillary Clinton's (D) 46.5%. At the start of the 2022 election cycle, Inside Elections rated this state Battleground Republican.[7] Wisconsin was one of two states that held a U.S. Senate election in 2022 with a Republican incumbent that President Joe Biden carried in the 2020 presidential election. Wisconsin was also one of six states with one Democratic and one Republican U.S. Senator as of the 2022 U.S. Senate elections.[8]
Gubernatorial races
- See also: Gubernatorial elections, 2022
There were 36 gubernatorial seats on the ballot in 2022. The governor is the political and ceremonial head of each state and he or she may also assume additional roles, such as the commander-in-chief of the National Guard when the role is not federalized. The governor may also have the ability to commute or pardon a criminal sentence. These elections took place in the context of the 2020 census and reapportionment, the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, and the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. Heading into the 2022 elections, 28 states had Republican governors and 22 states had Democratic governors. Of the offices up for election in 2022, 20 were held by Republicans and 16 were held by Democrats.
Arizona
Katie Hobbs (D), Kari Lake (R), Barry J. Hess (L), and Williams Pounds (Independent-Green Party) ran in the general election for governor of Arizona. Doug Ducey (R) was not able to run for re-election due to term limits. Hobbs, a former social worker, is the secretary of state, a position to which she was first elected in 2018. Previously, Hobbs served in the Arizona State Senate from 2013 to 2019 and in the Arizona House of Representatives from 2011 to 2013. Lake is a former news anchor for Fox 10 News in Phoenix. Lake said she is "running ... on a platform of common sense conservatism dedicated to individual liberties, low taxes, limited regulation, and protecting Arizona's great Western heritage."[9] Hobbs campaigned on expanding career and technical training, creating a state-level child tax credit to lower costs for families with children, and strengthening border security.[10] Hobbs said she would "veto unabashedly any further restrictions on access to reproductive health care."[11]
Kansas
Incumbent Laura Kelly (D), Derek Schmidt (R), Seth Cordell (L), and Dennis Pyle (Independent) ran in the general election for governor of Kansas on November 8, 2022. This is the only governorship Democrats are defending in 2022 in a state that Donald Trump (R) won in 2020. The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the election as a toss-up. Kelly was elected governor in 2018, defeating Republican Kris Kobach by a margin of five percentage points. Kobach had defeated then-incumbent Gov. Jeff Colyer (R) in the Republican primary by 343 votes, or one-tenth of a percentage point. Before becoming governor, Kelly served in the Kansas State Senate from 2005 to 2019.
Nevada
Incumbent Steve Sisolak (D), Joe Lombardo (R), Edward Bridges II (I), and Brandon Davis (L) ran in the general election for governor of Nevada on November 8, 2022. Sisolak was first elected governor in 2018 after serving on the Clark County Commission and the Nevada Board of Regents. Lombardo served in the U.S. Army, Army Reserve, and the National Guard and was a police office in Las Vegas. Lombardo was elected Clark County sheriff in 2014. President Joe Biden (D) carried Nevada over President Donald Trump (R), 50.1% to 47.7%, in the 2020 presidential election. Hillary Clinton (D) carried the state in the 2016 presidential election, 47.9% to 45.5%.
Oregon
Tina Kotek (D), Christine Drazan (R), Betsy Johnson (I), and R. Leon Noble (L) ran in the Oregon gubernatorial election on November 8, 2022. Incumbent Governor Kate Brown (D) was term-limited and could not run for re-election. Kotek, Drazan, and Johnson led the field in fundraising and media coverage.[12] Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote, “the state is hosting an unusual 3-way race among a trio of women who are all recent members of the state legislature. [...] The race sets up an unusual situation where the winner may not need to crack even 40%.”[12] Writing about the July 29 gubernatorial debate, Oregon Public Broadcasting’s Dirk VanderHart said the candidates, “attempted to stake out the political lanes they hope to ride to victory in November: Kotek as the accomplished progressive, Johnson as the centrist unifier, and Drazan as the change agent for a state that has [...] one-party control.”[13] Brown defeated state Rep. Knute Buehler (R), 50% to 44%, to win re-election in 2018. The last time Oregon voted for a Republican presidential candidate was 1984 and for a Republican senator, 2002.
U.S. House
The seats of all 435 representatives to the U.S. House were up for election. As a result of the 2020 elections, Democrats maintained a majority in the U.S. House, winning 222 seats to Republicans' 213. As of September 2022, Democrats held a 221-212 advantage in the U.S. House with two vacancies. Republicans needed to gain a net of five districts to win a majority in the chamber. The 2022 election was the first to take place following apportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census. As a result of apportionment, six states (Texas, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained seats, and seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.
Colorado's 8th Congressional District
Yadira Caraveo (D), Barbara Kirkmeyer (R), and three others ran in the general election for Colorado's 8th Congressional District on November 8, 2022. The 8th District, located north of Denver and including parts of Adams, Larimer, and Weld Counties, was one of seven new congressional districts created after the 2020 census and the first new congressional district in Colorado since 2001. Bloomberg Government's Zach Cohen wrote, "The diversity and competitiveness of Colorado's new 8th District has it primed to serve as a key House race in congressional midterms this year and beyond."[14]
New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District
Incumbent Chris Pappas (D) and Karoline Leavitt (R) ran in the general election for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District on November 8, 2022. The 1st District was one of 31 U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election and a Democratic candidate won in the 2018 midterm elections. From 2010 to 2016, the 1st District switched between Democratic and Republican control four times between two candidates: Carol Shea-Porter (D) and Frank Guinta (R). Guinta challenged and defeated incumbent Shea-Porter in 2010 and 2014. Shea-Porter challenged and defeated incumbent Guinta in 2012 and 2016 before retiring.
State legislatures
- See also: State legislative elections, 2022
Eighty-eight of the country's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly-scheduled elections. Elections in those 88 chambers represented 6,278 of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats (85%). Heading into the 2022 elections, Republicans controlled 54% of all state legislative seats nationally, while Democrats held 44%. Republicans held a majority in 62 chambers, and Democrats held the majority in 36 chambers. One chamber—the Alaska House—was organized under a multipartisan, power-sharing coalition.
Arizona House of Representatives
Republicans had held 31 of the 60 seats in the Arizona House of Representatives since after the 2018 elections, giving that party a two-seat majority over that period.[15] All 60 seats were up for election in 2022. Republicans needed to lose fewer than two net seats to maintain control of the chamber, and Democrats needed to win three net seats to flip the chamber. Arizona has been under a Republican trifecta since 2009 when Jan Brewer assumed the governorship and Republicans have held majorities in both legislative chambers since 1993. Arizona voters decided all 30 seats in the Arizona State Senate and the governor's race in 2022. Arizona enacted new legislative maps on January 24, 2022, after the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission voted to finalize and certify them on Jan. 21.[16][17] The commission's nonpartisan chairwoman joined the two Republican members voting in favor of the map, and the commission's two Democratic members were opposed.[18]
Colorado State Senate
Democrats had a 21-14 majority in the Colorado State Senate. Seventeen seats were up for election in 2022. As of the 2022 election, the Democratic Party controlled eight seats and the Republican Party controlled nine seats. Currently, the state of Colorado is under a Democratic trifecta, which has been in place since 2019. If the Democratic Party lost no more than three seats in the state Senate, nine seats in the state House, and maintains control of the governorship it would have maintained its trifecta. If the Republican Party flipped four or more seats in the state Senate, then the Democratic Party would have lost its trifecta. Colorado voters decided all 65 seats in the Colorado House of Representatives and the governor's race in 2022. The Colorado Supreme Court approved the state's legislative redistricting plans on November 15, 2021, after the Colorado Independent Legislative Redistricting Commission adopted them on October 11 and 12, 2021.[19] Colorado Politics' Evan Wyloge wrote that the new maps created nine House districts where previous election results fell within a five percentage point margin and eight such Senate districts. At the time of approval, Democrats held a 42-23 majority in the House and a 20-15 majority in the Senate.[20] All twelve commissioners—four unaffiliated commissioners, four Democrats, and four Republicans—approved the final vote for the state Senate map.[21]
Municipal elections
- See also: United States mayoral elections, 2022
Ballotpedia covered 34 mayoral elections in 2022. This included all mayoral elections in America's 100 largest cities by population and in each state capital. Heading into 2022, the mayors of 62 of the country's 100 largest cities were affiliated with the Democratic Party, 26 were Republicans, four were independents, seven mayors were nonpartisan, and one mayor's partisan affiliation was unknown. Thirty-eight state capitals had a Democratic mayor, five had a Republican mayor, one mayor was independent, two were nonpartisan, and four mayors' partisan affiliations were unknown.
Los Angeles Mayor
Karen Bass and Rick Caruso ran in the nonpartisan general election for mayor of Los Angeles, California. The candidates advanced from the June 7 primary election since neither received 50% of the vote. Incumbent Mayor Eric Garcetti could not run for re-election due to term limits. The New York Times' Jennifer Medina wrote that the race “has focused on voters’ worries about public safety and homelessness in the nation’s second-largest city” and could “become a test of whether voters this year favor an experienced politician who has spent nearly two decades in government or an outsider running on his business credentials.”[22] This was the first even-year election for Los Angeles mayor since the 2015 passage of Charter Amendment 1, which shifted city elections to even-numbered years beginning in 2020. Bass represented California's 37th Congressional District and served in the California State Assembly from 2005 to 2010. Caruso was the founder and chief executive officer of a retail complex development company and served on Los Angeles’ Department of Water and Power Commission, as the president of Los Angeles’ Police Commission, and on the USC Board of Trustees.[23][24]
State supreme court elections
- See also: State supreme court elections, 2022
Thirty states are holding state supreme court elections in 2022. In total, 84 of the 344 seats on state supreme courts are up for election. Of these seats, 64 were held by nonpartisan justices, 12 were held by Republican justices, and eight were held by Democratic justices.
Ohio Supreme Court
The seats of three Ohio Supreme Court justices were up for partisan election—Republican justices Maureen O'Connor, Pat Fischer, and Pat DeWine. According to an analysis by Bolts, Ohio was one of four states where the partisan balance of the state's highest court could change as a result of the 2022 elections.[25] Heading into the election, Ohio's supreme court was made up of four Republican justices and three Democratic justices. This marked the first Ohio Supreme Court election where candidates were listed on the general election ballot with a party signifier next to their names. Politico's Zach Montellaro and Shia Kapos wrote, "For the first time in the state, candidates will have party affiliation next to their name on the general election ballot — previously they were nominated by the parties, but party affiliation was not listed for the general election — and the race would be moved up the ballot to be grouped with other statewide offices instead of being listed down below."[26] Ohio last held state supreme court elections in 2020.
Other state executive elections
- See also: State executive official elections, 2022
State executive offices up for election in 2022 included 30 lieutenant gubernatorial seats, 30 attorney general seats, and 27 secretary of state seats. Including down-ballot races, there were 307 state executive seats up for election across 44 states in 2022. State executives act in many capacities according to the powers granted to them by their state's constitution. They are also charged with implementing and enforcing laws made by state legislatures. There are 748 executive seats spread across 13 distinct types of offices in the United States.[27] The secretary of state is a state-level position in 47 of the 50 states that often serves as the chief election official in their state, administering state elections and maintaining official election results. This is one of 27 elections—14 Republican-held and 13 Democratic-held—for secretaries of state that took place in 2022.
Arizona Secretary of State
Adrian Fontes (D) and Mark Finchem (R) ran in the general election for Arizona secretary of state on November 8, 2022. The incumbent—Katie Hobbs (D)— ran for governor. Hobbs defeated Steve Gaynor (R), 50.4% to 49.6%, in 2018. Before that year, Republican Party had held the office since the 1994 elections. Fontes is an attorney who served in the United States Marine Corps and was the Maricopa County Recorder from 2016 to 2020.[28] Finchem is a rancher, former police officer, and software company executive who was elected as a member of the Arizona House of Representatives in 2015.[29]
Election coverage by office
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Footnotes
- ↑ Tulsa World, "U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe announces retirement after 35 years in Congress representing Oklahoma," February 25, 2022
- ↑ This number includes Sen. Jim Inhofe's (R-Okla.) seat, up for a special election on November 8, 2022.
- ↑ McSally had been appointed to fill the seat left vacant by the resignation of Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) and death of Sen. John McCain. (R-Ariz.)
- ↑ Newsweek, “Walker's Chances of Beating Warnock With 100 Days to Midterm: Polls,” August 11, 2022
- ↑ CBS News, "Pennsylvania Senate candidate John Fetterman to return to in-person campaigning after stroke in May," August 5, 2022
- ↑ Roll Call, "Oz seeks to rally GOP against very online Fetterman campaign," August 22, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections, "Senate Ratings," March 8, 2021
- ↑ This includes Sen. Angus King (Maine) who was an independent that caucuses with Democrats.
- ↑ Kari Lake 2022 campaign website, "Kari Lake Bio," accessed June 29, 2022
- ↑ Katie Hobbs 2022 campaign website, "KATIE HOBBS' PLAN FOR SECURING ARIZONA," accessed November 6, 2022
- ↑ KTAR News, "Democratic Arizona gubernatorial Hobbs vows to protect women, providers following abortion ruling," June 25, 2022
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 Sabato's Crystal Ball, "The Gubernatorial Races: Look to the West," August 18, 2022
- ↑ Oregon Public Broadcasting, "Oregon governor candidates stake their positions in first debate," July 29, 2022
- ↑ Bloomberg Government, "Colorado’s Most Competitive House District Could Be ‘Bellwether,'" July 7, 2022
- ↑ The current partisan balance of the Arizona House is 31 Republicans, 28 Democrats, and one vacancy.
- ↑ Phone conversation with Valerie Neumann, AIRC executive assistant, Jan. 25, 2022
- ↑ Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, "Official Maps," accessed Jan. 21, 2022
- ↑ Tucson Sentinel, "Arizona Redistricting Commission gives final certification to new election maps," Jan. 21, 2022
- ↑ The Colorado Sun, "Colorado legislative maps get final approval from state Supreme Court," Nov. 15, 2021
- ↑ Colorado Politics, "Supreme Court approves Colorado legislative redistricting maps," Nov. 15, 2021
- ↑ The Denver Post, "Colorado’s redistricting commission picked new maps for the state House and Senate. Here’s what they look like." Oct. 12, 2021
- ↑ The New York Times, "Rick Caruso and Karen Bass head to a runoff in the Los Angeles mayor’s race.," June 8, 2022
- ↑ LinkedIn, "Caruso," accessed May 16, 2022
- ↑ Rick Caruso's campaign website, "Meet Rick Caruso," accessed May 16, 2022
- ↑ Bolts, "Your State-by-State Guide to the 2022 Supreme Court Elections," May 11, 2022
- ↑ Politico, "Redistricting, abortion supercharge state Supreme Court races," August 17, 2022
- ↑ There are 13 state executive offices as Ballotpedia defines the term, however there are other executive offices in some states that are not covered by Ballotpedia.
- ↑ Elect Fontes, "Meet Adrian Fontes," accessed September 14, 2022
- ↑ Mark Finchem, Secretary of State, "Meet Mark Finchem," accessed September 14, 2022
