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Coalition of the willing (Russo-Ukrainian War)

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The coalition of the willing, as it is known, is a coalition of 31 countries[1][2][3] which have pledged strengthened support for Ukraine against Russian aggression, going further than the support delivered by the Ukraine Defense Contact Group by pledging readiness to also be part of a peacekeeping force deployed on Ukrainian territory, either by providing troops or contributing in other ways. The peacekeeping force is envisaged only to be deployed the moment Ukraine and Russia sign a "comprehensive ceasefire agreement" or "peace deal" to settle the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War.[4] The initiative, led by the United Kingdom and France, was announced by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on 2 March 2025, following the 2025 London Summit on Ukraine under the motto "securing our future".[5]

The stated aim of the initiative is to facilitate the peace negotiation attempts launched and mediated by the United States between Ukraine and Russia in February 2025, by helping to build up strong enough security guarantees for Ukraine to ensure that a potential reached ceasefire or peace deal would be lasting.[6] Besides serving the role as building up a potential peacekeeping force, the coalition have also expressed readiness to increase military support for Ukraine and strengthen economic sanctions against Russia, in the event that the ongoing negotiations for a "comprehensive ceasefire" or "peace deal" would fail. As of 20 March 2025, the exact shape and function of the coalition was described as still being subject to ongoing planning, but moved into an "operational phase".[7][8]

History

[edit]
Participants at the 2 March 2025 London Summit on Ukraine

In late November 2024, Le Monde reported with the prospect of American disengagement from Kyiv in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine following Donald Trump's return to the White House, Paris and London were discussing taking the lead in a coalition in Ukraine, on terms yet to be defined.[9] The debate on sending "troops" to Ukraine, which French President Emmanuel Macron had launched at a meeting of Kiyv's allies in Paris in February 2024, was strongly opposed by some European countries, led by Germany. This scenario had not been buried however, and was revived during the visit to France of the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, for the November 11th Armistice Day ceremonies.[9] On 1 March 2025, Czech president Petr Pavel made a social media post on X, calling for the formation of a coalition of the willing to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[10]

Building up on these bilateral discussions aiming at creating a hard core of allies in Europe focused on Ukraine and wider European security, Keir Starmer hosted, on 2 March 2025, the 2025 London Summit on Ukraine with Emmanuel Macron, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and sixteen other world leaders, in order to coordinate support for Ukraine. Starmer characterised the meeting as addressing a "once-in-a-generation moment" for European security, stating that the time had come for decisive action rather than continued deliberation, and officially announced Britain and France would lead a European "coalition of the willing" to provide security guarantees to Ukraine and enable peace negotiations with Russia.[5][11] The announcement came two days after a meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and United States President Donald Trump with Vice President JD Vance at the White House on 28 February.[12][13]

On 11 March 2025, the military chiefs of staff of around 30 European and Commonwealth nations, as well as Japan, met in Paris for talks on the creation of an international security force for Ukraine to maintain peace should a ceasefire come into effect.[14][15]

On 15 March, Starmer held a virtual meeting with leaders from European and Commonwealth nations to assemble the "coalition of the willing" to consider options for a "reassurance force" to be deployed within Ukraine to deter renewed Russian attacks against the country should a ceasefire be agreed.[16] The meeting gathered the leaders of 26 countries, including several European countries, Ukraine, Turkey, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, as well as representatives from the European Commission and NATO;[17] and was addressed by the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Keir Starmer as well as French president Emmanuel Macron, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.[18]

On 17 March 2025, a spokesman of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom stated the coalition was expected to grow to "more than 30 countries", when military chiefs from the willing countries would be meeting, once again, on 20 March 2025 to discuss the next "operational phase" in protecting Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force - if a deal can be agreed with Russia. The spokesman added: "The contribution capabilities will vary, but this will be a significant force, with a significant number of countries providing troops and a larger group [of countries] contributing in other ways."[19]

On 20 March 2025, the exact shape and function of the coalition was described as still being subject to ongoing planning, but moved into an "operational phase" marked by the gathering of a meeting of military officials from 31 countries. No final decisions were announced after the meeting, but some media reported the participants had contemplated that the coalition could have two different designs depending on whether or not it should be deployed to defend a ceasefire agreement or a peace deal.[1][2]

Five military sub-planning groups (land, sea, air, regeneration and reconstruction) will reconvene the military officials from the 31 countries to continue discussions across three intensive planning days from 24-26 March at the Northwood Headquarters in England.[3][20]

The coalition then met again for a third high-level summit in Paris on 27 March 2025, with an agenda to finalise the plans on how the coalition shall be designed and deployed as a military force to ensure that a potential ceasefire will be lasting for Ukraine.[21][22] The agenda of the summit included drafting and debating a peace treaty proposal written by the coalition, drafting and debating how the coalition can secure a "complete ceasefire" acceptable to Ukraine, bolster aid to Ukraine (with each participating country expected to outline what it is prepared to do), and agreeing on a plan for providing long-term support for the Ukrainian army.[23] The outcome of the meeting was unanimous agreement that:[24]

  • No sanctions against Russia could be lifted as part of a temporary ceasefire agreement.
  • A potential sanctions relief should instead be conditioned on reaching a peace deal.
  • Defense chiefs from Ukraine, France and UK should soon meet in Ukraine to conduct the next stage of the detailed planning for setting up a potential reassurance force (determining the number of soldiers and type of military equipment required to be deployed after a reached peace deal, in order to deter and respond to a subseqently potential renewed Russian aggression).

On 24 April 2025, The Times reported that British officials considered deploying a ground force to defend Ukraine too risky and that the plan was likely to be abandoned, with military trainers deployed to Western Ukraine instead.[25]

High-level meetings

[edit]

The coalition so far held the following number of high-level meetings, in order to help facilitate the peace negotiation attempts aiming to reach a "comprehensive ceasefire agreement" or "peace deal" to settle the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War.

Date Host Chair Location Participating
Nations
Ref.
1 2 March 2025  United Kingdom Keir Starmer Lancaster House, London [26]
2 15 March 2025 Virtual meeting
(Video conference)
[17]
3 27 March 2025  France Emmanuel Macron Élysée Palace, Paris [27][28]

Besides of representatives from the participating nations, the following people also attended the above meetings:[26]

Organisation Represented by Title
 European Union Antonio Costa
Ursula von der Leyen
President of the European Council
President of the European Commission
 NATO Mark Rutte Secretary general of NATO

Aims

[edit]

The raison d'être of the initiative was created by the peace negotiation attempts launched and mediated by the United States between Ukraine and Russia in February 2025, as those negotiations initially did not present or offer Ukraine any substantial security guarantees to defend a potentially reached peace deal; while it was acknowledged that in order to ensure that a potential peace would be lasting for Ukraine then some stronger security guarantees than the pre-existing 1994 Budapest Memorandum would be needed, and at the same time became clear that the previously considered proposal to offer Ukraine an immediate membership of NATO as a security guarantee could not be realized. Besides serving the role as building up a potential peacekeeping force, the coalition also expressed readiness to increase military support for Ukraine and strengthen economic sanctions against Russia, in the event that the ongoing negotiations for a "comprehensive ceasefire" or "peace deal" would fail.

Four point-plan

[edit]

In a press conference that followed the London summit, Starmer outlined four key components of the coalition's approach:[11][12]

  1. Commitment to maintaining the flow of military aid to Ukraine while increasing economic pressure on Russia through sanctions and other measures.
  2. Affirming that any lasting peace agreement must ensure the sovereignty and security of Ukraine, with Ukraine being present at all peace negotiations.
  3. Pledging to enhance Ukraine's defensive military capabilities following any peace deal to deter potential future invasions.
  4. Development of a "coalition of the willing" consisting of multiple countries prepared to defend the terms of any peace agreement and guarantee Ukraine's security afterward.

List of countries and organisations

[edit]

The group consists largely of European and Commonwealth countries.[29] The 33 countries that have publicly been announced as Coalition of the Willing partners include:

Representatives for the following intergovernmental organisations have attended high level Coalition of the Willing meetings:

The People's Republic of China declared willingness to take part in Ukraine's post-war reconstruction on 18 March,[34] and according to the German newspaper Die Welt, China also contemplated joining the Coalition of the willing if being invited on 22 March.[35] The Chinese Foreign Ministry however two days later officially denied reports that China could ever join the coalition, as partaking in a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine spearheaded by European leaders was viewed to conflict with its policy of being a neutral party in Russia's war on Ukraine.[36]

Commitments

[edit]

As part of the announcement, Starmer committed £1.6 billion ($2 billion) in UK export finances to purchase more than 5,000 air defense missiles for Ukraine.[37] The missiles will be manufactured in Belfast in Northern Ireland.[37] This complemented a previously announced £2.2 billion loan for military aid to Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets.[38][39]

Starmer emphasized that European countries would need to take primary responsibility for the initiative and "do the heavy lifting" and that the agreement would require US backing and Russian involvement. He indicated that the United Kingdom would back its security commitments with "boots on the ground, and planes in the air," regarding the possibility of UK and EU direct military presence in Ukraine to carry out a peace enforcement operation.[12]

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the "urgent need to re-arm Europe," to support such security guarantees after "a long time of underinvestment". She suggested that the European Union might need to ease its fiscal rules regarding national debt to facilitate increased defense spending by member states.[11]

Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutte echoed this sentiment, noting that the meeting demonstrated European countries "stepping up" to ensure Ukraine has the resources necessary to "stay in the fight as long as it has to continue."[12]

Right after the meeting, Finland's president Alexander Stubb said that Norway and Finland are working in support of the drafting of the UK-France-Ukraine peace plan. In addition, he said that the role of the countries that are Russia's neighbours will be different from providing peacekeeping troops.[40]

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Starmer publicly announced Japan had joined the Coalition of the Willing on 15 March 2025, however Japan has not yet joined a high-level coalition meeting.[30][31]
  2. ^ Despite being represented in the virtual meeting on 15 March 2025, New Zealand was not represented at the latest meeting.[32][33]

References

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  1. ^ a b George Parker; Lucy Fisher; Charles Clover; Henry Foy (20 March 2025). "Starmer shifts from boots on the ground in Ukraine to air and sea defence". Financial Times. Northwood; London; Brussels. Archived from the original on 22 March 2025. Retrieved 20 March 2025.
  2. ^ a b Associated Press (21 March 2025). "European military leaders discuss Ukraine peacekeeping force". NPR. Archived from the original on 21 March 2025. Retrieved 21 March 2025.
  3. ^ a b Prime Minister's Office; Starmer, Keir (21 March 2025). "PM call with President of the European Council, President of the European Commission and the leaders of Turkey, Norway and Iceland: 21 March 2025". GOV.UK. Archived from the original on 21 March 2025. Retrieved 21 March 2025.
  4. ^ Landale, James (20 March 2025). "Reassurance, not peacekeeping: What Ukraine coalition force will and won't do". BBC News. Kyiv. Archived from the original on 20 March 2025. Retrieved 20 March 2025.
  5. ^ a b Martin, Daniel (2 March 2025). "Britain and France to lead 'coalition of the willing' to save Ukraine". The Telegraph. Archived from the original on 2 March 2025. Retrieved 23 March 2025.
  6. ^ France 24 (20 March 2025). "Military chiefs gather in UK to discuss Ukraine peacekeeping force". France 24. Archived from the original on 22 March 2025. Retrieved 20 March 2025.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  7. ^ Drummond, Michael (20 March 2025). "Who's in, who's out? The 'coalition of the willing' that could secure peace in Ukraine". Sky News. Archived from the original on 22 March 2025. Retrieved 22 March 2025.
  8. ^ Wolf, Rachel (20 March 2025). "Military leaders to meet on UK-France 'coalition of the willing' plan for Ukraine". Fox News. Archived from the original on 22 March 2025. Retrieved 22 March 2025.
  9. ^ a b Hoorman, Chloé; Vincent, Elise; Ricard, Philippe (25 November 2024). "Discussions over sending European troops to Ukraine reignited". Le Monde. Archived from the original on 25 November 2024. Retrieved 22 March 2025.
  10. ^ Ferenčík, Jakub (3 February 2025). "President Pavel calls for consideration of a coalition of the willing for a just peace". Radio Prague International. Archived from the original on 2 March 2025. Retrieved 23 March 2025.
  11. ^ a b c Al Jazeera and news agencies (2 March 2025). "Starmer says 'coalition of the willing' to present Ukraine peace plan to US". Al Jazeera. Archived from the original on 2 March 2025. Retrieved 2 March 2025.
  12. ^ a b c d Wong, Vicky (2 March 2025). "Starmer: Coalition of willing to guarantee Ukraine peace". BBC News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2025. Retrieved 2 March 2025.
  13. ^ Rogers, Alexandra. "UK to defend Ukraine peace deal with 'coalition of willing', Starmer says". Sky News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2025. Retrieved 2 March 2025.
  14. ^ Leicester, John (10 March 2025). "More than 30 nations will participate in Paris planning talks on a security force for Ukraine". The Independent. Archived from the original on 10 March 2025. Retrieved 1 April 2025.
  15. ^ France 24 (11 March 2025). "Macron calls on allies to plan 'credible security guarantees' for Ukraine at Paris talks". France 24. Archived from the original on 11 March 2025. Retrieved 1 April 2025.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  16. ^ Abboud, Leila; Parker, George (10 March 2025). "UK to convene 'coalition of the willing' for fresh talks on Ukraine peace force". Financial Times. London; Paris. Archived from the original on 10 March 2025. Retrieved 12 March 2025.
  17. ^ a b Wilson, Conor (16 March 2025). "Full list of 26 countries in 'coalition of the willing' ready to keep peace in Ukraine". Daily Express. Archived from the original on 18 March 2025. Retrieved 20 March 2025.
  18. ^ Taylor, Harry (16 March 2025). "Ukraine ceasefire plans moving to operational phase, Starmer says". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 15 March 2025. Retrieved 16 March 2025.
  19. ^ Culbertson, Alix (17 March 2025). "'Significant' number of countries to provide troops to Ukraine peacekeeping force". Sky News. Archived from the original on 17 March 2025. Retrieved 20 March 2025.
  20. ^ Webber, Esther (21 March 2025). "UK to host further military planning sessions on Ukraine". Politico. London. Archived from the original on 21 March 2025. Retrieved 21 March 2025.
  21. ^ Bowen, Jeremy; Aikman, Ian (27 March 2025). "Zelensky hopes US will 'stay strong' in face of Russian demands". BBC News. Archived from the original on 26 March 2025. Retrieved 27 March 2025.
  22. ^ France 24 (21 March 2025). "Paris to host new Ukraine coalition summit on March 27, Macron says". France 24. Archived from the original on 21 March 2025. Retrieved 21 March 2025.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  23. ^ Sophia Khatsenkova (26 March 2025). "What we know about Thursday's "Coalition of the Willing" summit for Ukraine in Paris". Euronews. Archived from the original on 26 March 2025. Retrieved 26 March 2025.
  24. ^ Mitchell, Archie (27 March 2025). "Starmer and Macron to send military chiefs to Ukraine to plan for future ceasefire". The Independent. Archived from the original on 27 March 2025. Retrieved 31 March 2025.
  25. ^ "UK could scrap plans to send thousands of troops to Ukraine".
  26. ^ a b Le Monde with AP and AFP (2 March 2025). "Ukraine summit 'once in a generation' moment for European security, says Starmer". Le Monde. Agence France-Presse. Archived from the original on 2 March 2025. Retrieved 29 March 2025.
  27. ^ Zadorozhnyy, Tim (27 March 2025). "Leaders from 31 countries gather for Paris summit to strengthen support for Ukraine, discuss peace". The Kyiv Independent. Archived from the original on 29 March 2025. Retrieved 29 March 2025.
  28. ^ Visegrád 24 [@visegrad24] (27 March 2025). "List of the leaders & representatives of 31 countries gathering in Paris right now for an emergency summit on Ukraine aimed at providing military aid & setting up a coalition of peacekeeping forces" (Tweet). Retrieved 29 March 2025 – via Twitter.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  29. ^ Harris, Rob (11 March 2025). "Rubio says Ukraine may need to do 'difficult things' to get peace deal". The Sydney Morning Herald. London. Archived from the original on 24 March 2025. Retrieved 12 March 2025.
  30. ^ Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street; Starmer, Keir (15 March 2025). "PM statement at press conference on the Coalition of the Willing: 15 March 2025". GOV.UK. Archived from the original on 15 March 2025. Retrieved 3 April 2025.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  31. ^ Merrick, Jane (16 March 2025). "Japan to help UK deter Putin with peacekeeping force in Ukraine". The i Paper. Archived from the original on 2 April 2025. Retrieved 17 March 2025.
  32. ^ RNZ (14 March 2025). "Prime Minister confirms he will join world leaders in 'coalition of the willing' phone call". RNZ. Archived from the original on 14 March 2025. Retrieved 2 April 2025.
  33. ^ Chittock, Niva (27 March 2025). "New Zealand not attending "Coalition of the Willing" summit in Paris". RNZ. Archived from the original on 27 March 2025. Retrieved 30 March 2025.
  34. ^ Goncharova, Olena (19 March 2025). "China signals willingness to aid Ukraine's post-war reconstruction". The Kyiv Independent. Archived from the original on 19 March 2025. Retrieved 23 March 2025.
  35. ^ Schiltz, Christoph B. (22 March 2025). "China erwägt offenbar Teilnahme an 'Koalition der Willigen' in der Ukraine" [China apparently considers joining the "Coalition of the Willing" in Ukraine]. Die Welt (in German). Brussels. Archived from the original on 22 March 2025. Retrieved 23 March 2025.
  36. ^ Jochecová, Ketrin (24 March 2025). "China trashes report it would put peacekeeping troops in Ukraine". Politico. Archived from the original on 24 March 2025. Retrieved 26 March 2025.
  37. ^ a b McKiernan, Jennifer (2 March 2025). "Keir Starmer announces £1.6bn missile deal for Ukraine". BBC News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2025. Retrieved 2 March 2025.
  38. ^ Beale, Jonathan (22 October 2024). "UK to boost Ukraine funding using £2bn from seized Russian assets". BBC News. Archived from the original on 22 October 2024. Retrieved 2 March 2025.
  39. ^ The Kyiv Independent news desk (2 March 2025). "Ukraine war latest: Europe developing 'coalition of the willing' to back ceasefire in Ukraine, Starmer says". The Kyiv Independent. Archived from the original on 2 March 2025. Retrieved 2 March 2025.
  40. ^ Koivistoinen, Viivi; Mäklin, Elsa (2 March 2025). "Stubb: Suomi on mukana Ukrainan rauhansuunnitelman laatimisessa" [Stubb: Finland is involved in drawing up the Ukraine peace plan]. Yle Uutiset (in Finnish). Archived from the original on 2 March 2025. Retrieved 3 March 2025.