Slotkin’s Shrinking Lead in Michigan

ActiVote’s November 1, 2024 Michigan U.S. Senate poll shows that Democratic U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin leads against her Republican opponent former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers by 2.4%. 

The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 12, 2024 and October 31, 2024 with a median field date of October 22.. 

Please note that Michigan does not include party affiliation in their voter registration. Therefore, our D/R/I categories are estimates and less accurate than for states which do include party affiliation in their voter registration. As a result, the number of crossover votes will seem higher than expected.

Also note that our unweighted sample for Black voters did not meet the threshold for reporting (nor did the unweighted and weighted sample for Latinos). Therefore, Black and Latino subsamples are included in the overall result, but not separately shown in the table.

Rogers leads among rural, suburban, older voters (50+), men, Republicans, Independents, Whites, middle income voters and those with a college education. Slotkin leads or ties all other categories.

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Slotkin and Rogers among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the swing state of Michigan the distribution of right-leaning and left-leaning voters slightly deviates from the national distribution.

Both dominate their core constituencies: Slotkin takes 97% of the left and moderate left voters, while Rogers takes 94% of the right and moderate right voters. Slotkin has a 4% lead among centrists. 

Comparisons

In November 2020, incumbent Democratic Senator Gary Peters narrowly beat his Republican challenger John James by 1.7%. In November 2018, incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow beat the same Republican challenger, John James, by 6.5%. In our previous poll of September 5, 2024, Slotkin led by 6.4%.

Want to be included in our next poll? Check out the app!

Check out our polling page for our latest polls. For further details see our FAQs, polling methodology, AAPOR Transparency Initiative disclosures, 538 pollster rating disclosures, and accuracy analysis.