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The Republicans are likely to gain a majority in the House

Explore the findings of our model of the race to control Congress

Last updated on November 8th 2022

October 31st 2022: We have updated the methodology behind our congressional forecast.
 Read about the changes to our model here.

Simulated House seats won
Each day, we run 10,000 simulated elections based on polling, demography, fundraising and historical results. These statistics reflect the outcomes of those simulated elections.

Average prediction

Dem

Rep

218 seats for a majority
190200210220230240250 210.5210.5 224.5224.5

2020 House results

222222 213213
Democrats win
in 23 out of 100 simulations
Republicans win
in 77 out of 100 simulations
Predicted to win 191⁠–⁠227 seats Predicted to win 208⁠–⁠244 seats
Most likely to win
48⁠–⁠52% of vote 		Most likely to win
48⁠–⁠52% of vote
Predicted range covers 95% of simulations
Chance of winning by district
The latest round of redistricting has reduced the number of competitive districts. The results of just a handful of races scattered across the country, mostly in states where politically independent mapmakers drew district boundaries, will determine control of the House.
Dem
Rep
Simulations
Safe
151
180
99+ in 100
Very likely
30
20
85–99 in 100
Likely
19
9
65–85 in 100
Uncertain
26
<65 in 100
218 seats for majority Safe seats Safe seats 104 competitive districts
House forecasts over time
The Democrats confront strong headwinds in trying to keep the House. The President’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections. Pessimism about the economy will not help either. But in some races Republicans have opted for weaker far-right candidates. And the Supreme Court’s decision to overrule Roe v. Wade may have energised Democratic voters.

Chance of winning a majority

0 25 50 75 100 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Election day Election day 8th 8th Dem 23% Dem 23% Rep 77% Rep 77%

Forecast number of seats

150 200 250 300 218 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Election day Election day 8th 8th Dem 210 Dem 210 Rep 225 Rep 225

Forecast share of vote

40 45 50 55 60 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Election day Election day 8th 8th Dem 49.8% Dem 49.8% Rep 50.2% Rep 50.2%
Sources: Clerk of the House of Representatives; Congressional Quarterly; MIT Election Lab; VoteView; Gary Jacobson; Ballotpedia; Daily Kos Elections; OurCampaigns; state election records; Corwin Smidt; American National Election Studies; Polidata; RealClearPolitics; DC Political Report; FiveThirtyEight; US Election Atlas; Huffington Post Pollster; Congressional District Religiosity Dataset; American Community Survey; United States Census; Wikipedia; Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections; Carl Klarner; Federal Election Commission; Joseph Bafumi; Roper Centre; The Economist

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