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2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election

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For related races, see 2024 United States gubernatorial elections.

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout73.73% (Decrease1.62 pp)
 
Nominee Josh Stein Mark Robinson
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 3,069,496 2,241,309
Percentage 54.90% 40.08%
Stein:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Robinson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
     No votes
Governor before election

Roy Cooper
Democratic

Elected Governor

Josh Stein
Democratic

Elections in North Carolina
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The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Carolina. It was held concurrently with the 2024 presidential election and other elections. Democratic state attorney general Josh Stein won his first term in office in a landslide victory, defeating Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson to succeed Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper, who was term-limited.

Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024.[1] Stein won the Democratic nomination with 70% of the vote over former state Supreme Court justice Michael R. Morgan and Robinson won the Republican nomination with 65% of the vote over state treasurer Dale Folwell.

Initially a tight race, Robinson's history of controversial statements and revelations of comments he made on a pornographic website led to Stein gaining a significant polling advantage. Stein went on to win the election by 14.8 percentage points, the largest margin for a gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina since Jim Hunt in 1980, as well as winning counties that had not voted Democratic since 2008 (Franklin), 2004 (Alamance, Brunswick, and Transylvania), and 1980 (Cabarrus, Henderson, and Jackson). Stein was also the only Democrat in 2024 to win a gubernatorial race in a state Donald Trump won in the concurrent presidential race. Robinson became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate since 1976 to not flip a county in the state.

Stein received more than three million votes, the most of any candidate in the history of statewide elections in North Carolina. He is the first Jewish governor of the state.[2] Analysts have credited Stein's large margin of victory with helping down-ballot Democrats in concurrent elections.[3][4] According to exit polls, Stein won independent voters by a 23% margin, which further contributed to Robinson's defeat.

Background

[edit]

A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. Both U.S. senators from the state are members of the Republican Party. Democrats and Republicans both hold multiple statewide offices in North Carolina. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried North Carolina by 1.34 percentage points, the smallest margin among the states he won.[5][6]

Incumbent Roy Cooper was first elected in 2016, defeating then-incumbent governor Pat McCrory by about 0.2 points. Cooper was re-elected in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points.[6][7]

The Democratic nominee was Josh Stein, the incumbent state attorney general. The Republican nominee was Mark Robinson, the incumbent lieutenant governor.[8]

The 2024 election was initially expected to be competitive due to the state's nearly even to slightly right-leaning partisan lean, the concurrent presidential election, and the seat being open due to term limits. However, Robinson later became embroiled in numerous controversies after becoming the nominee, allowing Stein to open up a large and consistent lead in polls.[9]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Josh Stein

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Chrelle
Booker 		Gary
Foxx 		Michael
Morgan 		Josh
Stein 		Marcus
Williams 		Other Undecided
High Point University[31] February 16–23, 2024 322 (LV) ± 6.0% 10% 10% 14% 57% 9% – –
Change Research (D)[32][A] February 15–19, 2024 1,622 (LV) ± 2.6% – – 8% 49% – 4%[b] 39%
East Carolina University[33] February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (RV) ± 3.3% 2% 2% 7% 57% 3% – 29%
Meredith College[34] January 26–31, 2024 760 (RV) ± 3.5% 5% 3% 4% 31% 2% 4%[c] 51%
Public Policy Polling (D)[35] December 15–16, 2023 556 (LV) ± 4.2% 3% 1% 5% 56% 4% – 32%
December 15, 2023 Foxx joins the race
December 14, 2023 Williams joins the race
November 2, 2023 Booker joins the race
Meredith College[36] November 1–5, 2023 755 (RV) ± 3.5% – – 11% 38% – 7%[d] 44%
Meredith College[37] September 16–19, 2023 308 (RV) ± 3.5% – – 11% 33% – 10%[e] 46%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mandy
Cohen 		Jeff
Jackson 		Josh
Stein 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[38][A] October 7–8, 2022 606 (RV) ± 4.0% 18% 12% 22% 9%[f] 39%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
Stein
  •   Stein—80–90%
  •   Stein—70–80%
  •   Stein—60–70%
  •   Stein—50–60%
  •   Stein—40–50%
  •   Stein—30–40%
Morgan
  •   Morgan—50–60%
  •   Morgan—40–50%
Democratic primary results[39]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Josh Stein 479,026 69.60%
Democratic Michael R. Morgan 98,627 14.33%
Democratic Chrelle Booker 46,045 6.69%
Democratic Marcus Williams 39,257 5.70%
Democratic Gary Foxx 25,283 3.67%
Total votes 688,238 100.0%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Dale Folwell

Council of State officials

Newspapers

Bill Graham

U.S. senators

Mark Robinson

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State senators

State representatives

Organizations

Newspapers

Debate

[edit]
2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election Republican primary debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Republican Republican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Dale Folwell Mark Walker Jesse Thomas
1 September 12, 2023 Wake County
Republican Party 		Bill LuMaye YouTube P P P

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Dale
Folwell 		Bill
Graham 		Mark
Robinson 		Jesse
Thomas 		Mark
Walker 		Andy
Wells 		Other Undecided
High Point University[31] February 16–23, 2024 394 (LV) ± 6.0% 17% 33% 51% 9% – – – –
Capen Analytics (R)[55] February 21, 2024 12,580 (LV) ± 5.0% 29% 18% 53% – – – – –
Change Research (D)[32][A] February 15–19, 2024 1,622 (LV) ± 2.6% 9% 9% 57% – – – 3%[g] 22%
East Carolina University[33] February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (RV) ± 3.3% 7% 13% 53% – – – – 27%
Meredith College[34] January 26–31, 2024 760 (RV) ± 3.5% 4% 9% 34% – – – 10%[e] 42%
Public Policy Polling (D)[56] January 5–6, 2024 619 (LV) ± 3.9% 7% 15% 55% – – – – 24%
December 16, 2023 Wells withdraws from the race
East Carolina University[57] November 29 – December 1, 2023 445 (LV) ± 5.4% 7% 8% 34% – – 3% – 49%
November 2, 2023 Thomas withdraws from the race
Meredith College[36] November 1–5, 2023 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 3% 5% 41% 2% – 1% 6%[h] 42%
October 25, 2023 Walker withdraws from the race
October 18, 2023 Graham joins the race
Cygnal (R)[58][B] October 8–9, 2023 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 5% – 49% 1% 4% 1% – 41%
Meredith College[37] September 16–19, 2023 350 (RV) ± 3.5% 3% – 34% 3% 7% 3% 6%[h] 44%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Dale
Folwell 		Pat
McCrory 		Mark
Robinson 		Thom
Tillis 		Steve
Troxler 		Mark
Walker 		Other Undecided
Opinion Diagnostics (R)[59] June 5–7, 2023 902 (LV) ± 3.3% 4% – 44% – – 7% 7%[d] 38%
SurveyUSA[60][B] April 25–29, 2023 707 (LV) ± 4.4% 4% – 43% – 9% 8% – 37%
Differentiators (R)[61] December 12, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.0% 6% – 60% – – – – 34%
– 21% 60% – – – – 19%
– – 58% – – 8% – 34%
Public Policy Polling (D)[38][A] October 7–8, 2022 606 (RV) ± 4.0% 4% – 54% 20% – – 5%[i] 17%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
Robinson
  •   Robinson—80–90%
  •   Robinson—70–80%
  •   Robinson—60–70%
  •   Robinson—50–60%
  •   Robinson—40–50%
Republican primary results[39]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mark Robinson 666,504 64.83%
Republican Dale Folwell 196,955 19.16%
Republican Bill Graham 164,572 16.01%
Total votes 1,028,031 100.0%

Other candidates

[edit]

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Shannon Bray, cybersecurity professional and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 and 2022[63]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Ross
  •   Ross—100%
  •   Ross—80–90%
  •   Ross—70–80%
  •   Ross—60–70%
  •   Ross—50–60%
  Bray
  •   Bray—100%
  •   Bray—70–80%
  •   Bray—60–70%
  •   Bray—50–60%
  Tie
  •   Tie—50–60%
Libertarian primary results[39]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Mike Ross 2,910 59.45%
Libertarian Shannon Bray 1,985 40.55%
Total votes 4,895 100.0%

Green Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Constitution Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Stein and Robinson faced each other in the general election. With the backing of former President Donald Trump, Robinson received heavy criticism from Democrats over statements on abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, and education. Robinson had also made a series of controversial statements before and after taking public office, including engaging in Holocaust denial.[65] Robinson also received criticism from some Republicans considered to be moderate, including Senator Thom Tillis and primary opponent Dale Folwell, both of whom declined to endorse Robinson.[66] On September 17, Stein refused any potential debates with Robinson following a challenge from him.[67]

Calls for Robinson to drop out

[edit]

On September 19, CNN released a story detailing racist, antisemitic, misogynistic, and other "disturbing comments" made by an account suspected to be Robinson on a pornography website between 2008 and 2012.[68][69] Hours later, CNN specified multiple comments made on pornography website message boards, including Robinson calling himself a "black NAZI" and expressing support for reinstating slavery.[70] The Carolina Journal had reported that earlier in the week the Trump–Vance campaign privately told Robinson that he was not welcome at rallies for Donald Trump or JD Vance.[71] This occurred on the same day as the filing deadline for North Carolina's 2024 election ballots. Before the story was released, Robinson released a video dismissing the report as "tabloid lies" and saying that he would not drop out of the race.[72] His campaign canceled events in Henderson and Norlina planned for the same day. Republican state senate nominee Scott Lassiter was the first on the ballot with Robinson to call for him to "step aside".[69] Republican North Carolina senator Ted Budd said, "the allegations are concerning but we don't have any facts".[73] That afternoon, Politico reported that an email address belonging to Robinson was registered on Ashley Madison, a website designed for people seeking affairs while married.[74] The deadline for Robinson to withdraw from the race or be removed from the ballot passed on the morning of September 20.[75]

Following CNN's September report, most forecasters moved the race to 'Likely Democratic', while Elections Daily moved the race to Safe Democratic.[76][9][77][78]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[77] Likely D September 20, 2024
Inside Elections[79] Likely D September 26, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[80] Likely D September 19, 2024
RCP[81] Likely D September 28, 2024
Fox News[82] Likely D September 25, 2024
Elections Daily[83] Safe D September 19, 2024
CNalysis[78] Solid D October 15, 2024
Split Ticket[84] Safe D October 19, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Josh Stein (D)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State senators

State representatives

Organizations

Individuals

Mark Robinson (R)

Statewide officials

Organizations

Declined to endorse

Statewide officials

U.S. senators

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Josh Stein (D) $84,064,178 $82,450,647 $1,901,820
Mark Robinson (R) $20,012,299 $19,799,956 $250,001
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections[103]

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Josh
Stein (D) 		Mark
Robinson (R) 		Undecided
[j] 		Margin
RealClearPolitics[104] October 16 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 53.1% 38.8% 8.1% Stein +14.3%
270ToWin[105] October 24 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 53.1% 38.0% 8.9% Stein +15.1%
The Hill/DDHQ[106] through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 53.4% 38.8% 7.8% Stein +14.6%
Average 53.2% 38.5% 8.2% Stein +14.7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Stein (D) 		Mark
Robinson (R) 		Other Undecided
AtlasIntel[107] November 3–4, 2024 1,219 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 38% 4%[k] 4%
AtlasIntel[108] November 1–2, 2024 1,310 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 41% 4%[k] 3%
Emerson College[109][C] October 30 – November 2, 2024 860 (LV) ± 3.3% 52% 40% 4% 4%
New York Times/Siena College[110] October 28 – November 2, 2024 1,010 (LV) ± 3.6% 56% 38% – 5%
1,010 (RV) ± 3.6% 56% 36% – 7%
Morning Consult[111] October 23 – November 1, 2024 1,056 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 36% – 12%
ActiVote[112] October 17–31, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 42% – –
AtlasIntel[113] October 27–30, 2024 1,373 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 42% 4%[k] 2%
AtlasIntel[114] October 25–29, 2024 1,665 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 39% 4%[k] 4%
East Carolina University[115] October 24–29, 2024 1,250 (LV) ± 3.0% 55% 40% 5%[l] –
Fox News[116] October 24–28, 2024 872 (LV) ± 3.0% 57% 41% – 2%
1,113 (RV) ± 3.0% 59% 38% 1% 2%
CNN/SSRS[117] October 23–28, 2024 750 (LV) ± 4.5% 53% 37% 10%[m] 1%
SurveyUSA[118][D] October 23–26, 2024 853 (LV) ± 4.1% 52% 37% 1% 10%
UMass Lowell/YouGov[119] October 16–23, 2024 650 (LV) ± 4.2% 48% 36% 3%[n] 12%
Emerson College[120] October 21–22, 2024 950 (LV) ± 3.1% 51% 39% 4%[c] 6%
Marist College[121] October 17–22, 2024 1,226 (LV) ± 3.6% 55% 41% 3%[o] 2%
1,410 (RV) ± 3.3% 55% 40% 3%[o] 2%
SoCal Strategies (R)[122][E] October 20–21, 2024 702 (LV) ± 3.7% 55% 40% – 5%
SurveyUSA[123][F] October 17–20, 2024 1,164 (RV) ± 3.7% 50% 34% – 15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[124][G] October 16–18, 2024 843 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 37% 6%[p] 10%
AtlasIntel[125] October 12–17, 2024 1,674 (LV) ± 2.0% 54% 39% 3%[q] 4%
Elon University/YouGov[126] October 10–17, 2024 800 (RV) ± 4.0% 52% 31% 7%[r] 10%
Morning Consult[111] October 6–15, 2024 1,072 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 32% 4% 10%
Cygnal (R)[127][H] October 12–14, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 36% 4%[s] 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[128][G] October 12–14, 2024 620 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 38% 8%[t] 9%
Quinnipiac University[129] October 10–14, 2024 1,031 (LV) ± 3.1% 54% 42% 2%[u] 2%
52% 40% 5%[v] 2%
Emerson College[130][I] October 5–8, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 34% 5%[i] 11%
ActiVote[131] September 5 – October 5, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 56.5% 43.5% – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[132][G] September 27 – October 2, 2024 753 (LV) ± 3.3% 46% 36% 4%[w] 14%
Quinnipiac University[133] September 25–29, 2024 953 (LV) ± 3.2% 53% 41% 2%[x] 4%
52% 39% 6%[y] 3%
The Washington Post[134] September 25–29, 2024 1,001 (LV) ± 3.5% 54% 38% 2%[z] 6%
1,001 (RV) ± 3.5% 53% 38% 2%[z] 7%
High Point University[135] September 20–29, 2024 589 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 34% 3% 11%
814 (RV) ± 3.4% 51% 32% 3% 14%
Emerson College[136][J] September 27–28, 2024 850 (LV) ± 3.3% 52% 33% 4%[c] 12%
RMG Research[137][K] September 25–27, 2024 780 (LV) ± 3.5% 53%[aa] 38% 1%[ab] 8%
50% 36% 5%[ac] 9%
East Carolina University[138] September 23–26, 2024 1,005 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 33% 5%[ad] 13%
AtlasIntel[139] September 20–25, 2024 1,173 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 38% 3%[ae] 5%
CNN/SSRS[140] September 20–25, 2024 931 (LV) ± 3.9% 53% 36% 11%[af] –
BSG (R)/Global Strategy Group (D)[141][L] September 19–25, 2024 411 (LV) – 53% 33% 7%[ag] 8%
59% 35% – 6%
Fox News[142] September 20–24, 2024 787 (LV) ± 3.5% 56% 41% 1%[ah] 3%
991 (RV) ± 3.0% 56% 40% 2%[ai] 3%
Marist College[143] September 19–24, 2024 1,507 (RV) ± 3.5% 54% 42% 1%[aj] 3%
1,348 (LV) ± 3.7% 54% 43% 1%[aj] 2%
September 19, 2024 CNN Reports that Mark Robinson made disturbing comments on an online forum years ago.
New York Times/Siena College[144] September 17–21, 2024 682 (LV) ± 4.2% 47% 37% – 16%
682 (RV) ± 4.2% 47% 36% – 17%
Meredith College[145] September 18–20, 2024 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 40% 5%[ak] 9%
Victory Insights (R)[146] September 16–18, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 42% – 11%
Emerson College[147][I] September 15–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 40% 2%[al] 10%
Morning Consult[111] September 11–18, 2024 1,314 (LV) ± 2.7% 50% 37% 1% 12%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[148][M] September 11–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 42% – 6%
Cygnal (R)[149][H] September 15–16, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 39% 2%[am] 13%
Elon University/YouGov[150] September 4–13, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.74% 49% 35% 3% 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[151][G] September 6–9, 2024 495 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 33% 3%[an] 23%
Quinnipiac University[152] September 4–8, 2024 940 (LV) ± 3.2% 54% 42% 1%[ao] 4%
51% 41% 5%[ap] 4%
Morning Consult[111] August 30 – September 8, 2024 1,369 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 37% 2%[al] 11%
SurveyUSA[153][D] September 4–7, 2024 676 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 37% – 12%
Florida Atlantic University/
Mainstreet Research[154] 		September 5–6, 2024 692 (RV) ± 3.7% 48% 38% – 14%
619 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 39% – 11%
East Carolina University[155] August 26–28, 2024 920 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 41% 1%[aq] 11%
Emerson College[156][I] August 25–28, 2024 775 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 41% 3%[ar] 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[157][G] August 25–28, 2024 812 (LV) ± 3.18% 44% 40% 4%[as] 13%
SoCal Strategies (R)[158][E] August 26–27, 2024 612 (LV) – 47% 37% – 16%
Fox News[159] August 23–26, 2024 1,026 (RV) ± 3.0% 54% 43% 2%[ai] 1%
ActiVote[160] July 26 – August 26, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 54% 46% – –
SurveyUSA[161][F] August 19–21, 2024 1,053 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 34% – 18%
941 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 36% – 14%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[162][G] August 12–15, 2024 601 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 39% 3%[at] 13%
The New York Times/Siena College[163] August 9–14, 2024 655 (RV) ± 4.2% 48% 38% – 14%
655 (LV) ± 4.2% 49% 39% – 12%
YouGov Blue (D)[164][A] August 5–9, 2024 802 (RV) ± 3.9% 46% 36% 6%[au] 13%
Cygnal (R)[165] August 4–5, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 38% 4%[av] 15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[166] July 31 – August 3, 2024 714 (LV) – 43% 38% 3%[aw] 16%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[167] July 22–24, 2024 586 (LV) – 38% 34% 5%[ax] 23%
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race
Public Policy Polling (D)[168][N] July 19–20, 2024 573 (RV) – 48% 42% – 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[169][G] July 16–18, 2024 461 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 36% 4%[ay] 23%
Expedition Strategies[170][O] June 24 – July 8, 2024 284 (LV) – 48% 41% – 11%
Spry Strategies (R)[171] June 7–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 43% – 18%
East Carolina University[172] May 31 – June 3, 2024 1,332 (LV) ± 3.1% 44% 43% – 13%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[173][P] May 29 – June 2, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 44% – 14%
Change Research (D)[174][A] May 13–18, 2024 835 (LV) ± 3.8% 44% 43% – 13%
High Point University[175] May 2–9, 2024 804 (RV) ± 3.2% 34% 39% – 27%
1,002 (A) ± 3.2% 30% 35% – 35%
Cygnal (R)[176][H] May 4–5, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 39% 5%[az] 17%
Emerson College[177] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 42% 5%[i] 12%
Meeting Street Insights (R)[178][Q] April 25–28, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 37% 6%[ba] 13%
Meredith College[179] April 11–17, 2024 711 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 36% – 20%
Cygnal (R)[180][H] April 7–8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 40% – 18%
Quinnipiac University[181] April 4–8, 2024 1,401 (RV) ± 2.6% 52% 44% 2%[x] 3%
48% 41% 7%[bb] 3%
High Point University[182] March 22–30, 2024 829 (RV) ± 3.4% 37% 34% – 29%
Marist College[183] March 11–14, 2024 1,197 (RV) ± 3.6% 49% 47% – 4%
SurveyUSA[184][D] March 3–9, 2024 598 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 42% – 14%
Cygnal (R)[185][B] March 6–7, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 44% – 17%
Change Research (D)[32][A] February 15–19, 2024 1,622 (LV) ± 2.6% 42% 43% – 15%
East Carolina University[33] February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (RV) ± 3.3% 41% 41% – 14%
Meredith College[34] January 26–31, 2024 760 (RV) ± 3.5% 39% 35% – 17%
East Carolina University[57] November 29 – December 1, 2023 915 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 44% – 16%
Meredith College[36] November 1–5, 2023 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 36% – 19%
Change Research (D)[186][A] September 1–5, 2023 914 (LV) ± 3.6% 38% 42% – 20%
Opinion Diagnostics (R)[59] June 5–7, 2023 902 (LV) ± 3.3% 38% 41% – 21%
Cygnal (R)[187][B] May 12–23, 2023 610 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 42% – 18%
Change Research (D)[188][A] May 5–8, 2023 802 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 46% 1%[ab] 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[189][A] March 2–3, 2023 704 (RV) ± 3.7% 42% 44% – 14%
Differentiator Data (R)[190][R] January 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 42% 42% – 16%
Public Policy Polling (D)[38][A] October 7–8, 2022 606 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 42% – 14%
Meeting Street Insights (R)[191][S] May 12–16, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 48% – 10%
Hypothetical polling

Josh Stein vs. Dale Folwell

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Stein (D) 		Dale
Folwell (R) 		Undecided
East Carolina University[33] February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (RV) ± 3.3% 42% 31% 27%
East Carolina University[57] November 29 – December 1, 2023 915 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 38% 22%
Cygnal (R)[187][B] May 12–23, 2023 610 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 34% 27%

Josh Stein vs. Bill Graham

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Stein (D) 		Bill
Graham (R) 		Undecided
East Carolina University[33] February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (RV) ± 3.3% 40% 35% 25%
East Carolina University[57] November 29 – December 1, 2023 915 (RV) ± 3.8% 42% 39% 19%

Josh Stein vs. Mark Walker

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Stein (D) 		Mark
Walker (R) 		Undecided
Cygnal (R)[187][B] May 12–23, 2023 610 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 37% 24%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Democrat 		Generic
Republican 		Other Undecided
High Point University[31] February 16–23, 2024 753 (LV) ± 3.9% 46% 45% 2%[bc] 7%

Results

[edit]
2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election[192]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Josh Stein 3,069,496 54.90% +3.38%
Republican Mark Robinson 2,241,309 40.08% –6.93%
Libertarian Mike Ross 176,392 3.15% +2.05%
Constitution Vinny Smith 54,738 0.98% +0.60%
Green Wayne Turner 49,612 0.89% N/A
Total votes 5,591,547 100.0%
Democratic hold

By congressional district

[edit]

Stein won 12 of 14 congressional districts, including eight that elected Republican representatives, and nine that voted for Donald Trump.[193]

District Stein Robinson Representative Presidential Result
1st 52.8% 43.9% Don Davis Trump
2nd 73.5% 21.2% Deborah Ross Harris
3rd 45.7% 49.1% Greg Murphy Trump
4th 77.6% 18.2% Valerie Foushee Harris
5th 48.2% 47% Virginia Foxx Trump
6th 48.6% 45.6% Addison McDowell Trump
7th 51.1% 43.2% David Rouzer Trump
8th 46.7% 48.2% Mark Harris Trump
9th 48.9% 45.9% Richard Hudson Trump
10th 48.4% 46.3% Pat Harrigan Trump
11th 51.5% 44.0% Chuck Edwards Trump
12th 77.3% 17.8% Alma Adams Harris
13th 49.2% 45.2% Brad Knott Trump
14th 49.2% 45.4% Tim Moore Trump

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

Voter demographics

[edit]
2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election (CNN)[194]
Demographic subgroup Stein Robinson % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 96 2 21
Moderates 71 23 40
Conservatives 15 80 39
Party
Democrats 96 2 32
Republicans 13 83 34
Independents 58 35 35
Gender
Men 48 47 48
Women 61 34 52
Age
18–24 years old 59 30 9
25–29 years old 63 32 5
30–39 years old 59 38 15
40–49 years old 58 36 16
50–64 years old 49 47 29
65 and older 54 42 25
Race/ethnicity
White 46 49 69
Black 85 8 19
Latino 53 39 8
Asian N/A N/A 1
Other N/A N/A 2
Gender by race
White men 42 55 34
White women 51 44 36
Black men 75 13 8
Black women 93 4 11
Latino men 39 51 4
Latino women 67 26 4
Other racial/ethnic groups 55 41 4
Education
Never attended college 42 50 16
Some college education 54 42 25
Associate degree 43 52 17
Bachelor's degree degree 64 33 25
Postgraduate 69 26 16
Education by race
White college graduates 62 34 31
White no college degree 34 62 38
Non-white college graduates 76 21 10
Non-white no college degree 72 19 20
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees 67 28 16
White women without college degrees 38 58 20
White men with college degrees 57 40 15
White men without college degrees 29 67 19
Non-white 74 20 31
Area type
Urban 74 20 28
Suburban 48 47 53
Rural 45 49 20

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Would not vote" with 4%
  3. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 4%
  4. ^ a b "Someone else" with 7%
  5. ^ a b "Someone else" with 10%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 9%
  7. ^ "Would not vote" with 3%
  8. ^ a b "Someone else" with 6%
  9. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 5%
  10. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. ^ a b c d "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%
  12. ^ Ross (L) with 3%
  13. ^ "Neither" with 6%; "Other" with 3%
  14. ^ Ross (L) with 2%; Smith (C) with 1%
  15. ^ a b "Another party's candidate" with 3%
  16. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%; Ross (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  17. ^ "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  18. ^ "Other" with 4%; "None" with 3%
  19. ^ Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%; Smith (C) with <1%
  20. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  21. ^ "Refused" with 2%
  22. ^ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) and Smith (C) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  23. ^ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  24. ^ a b "Wouldn't Vote" and "Refused" with 1%
  25. ^ Ross (L) with 3%, Smith (C), "Wouldn't Vote", and "Refused" with 1%
  26. ^ a b "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  27. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  28. ^ a b "Would not vote" with 1%
  29. ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  30. ^ Ross (L) with 3%; Smith (C), "Other" with 1%
  31. ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  32. ^ "Neither" with 8%; "Other" with 3%
  33. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 4%
  34. ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  35. ^ a b "Other" with 1% and "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  36. ^ a b "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  37. ^ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G), Smith (C), and "Someone else" with 1%
  38. ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%
  39. ^ Ross (L) with 2%
  40. ^ Ross (L) with 1%; "Other" with 2%
  41. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  42. ^ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; Smith (C) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  43. ^ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G), Smith (C), "Write-in candidate" each with <1%
  44. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  45. ^ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Others" with 1%
  46. ^ Ross (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  47. ^ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Undecided Third Party" with 4%
  48. ^ Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%
  49. ^ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  50. ^ Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  51. ^ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 2%
  52. ^ Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 1%
  53. ^ Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 2%
  54. ^ Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  55. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
  2. ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by Nexstar
  4. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, which supports Republican candidates.
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by High Point University
  7. ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  8. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Carolina Journal
  9. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Hill
  10. ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by Napolitan Institute
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  13. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP
  14. ^ Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, which supports Democratic candidates
  15. ^ Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  16. ^ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  17. ^ Poll sponsored by Carolina Partnership for Reform & Carolina Leadership Coalition
  18. ^ This poll was sponsored by the NC Values Commission
  19. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Carolina Partnership for Reform

References

[edit]
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Official campaign websites

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