2024 United States Senate election in Wyoming
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 County results Barrasso: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Morrow: 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Wyoming |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Wyoming was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wyoming. Incumbent Senator John Barrasso was appointed to the Senate in 2007 after Craig Thomas died. Barrasso won a 2008 special election to complete Thomas' term and won full terms in 2012 and 2018. He was seeking a third full term, and declared his intent to run for Assistant Republican Leader at the end of the year.[1] Primary elections took place on August 20, 2024. Barrasso won renomination and defeated Democrat Scott Morrow in the general election. Wyoming has been represented in the U.S. Senate exclusively by Republicans since 1977 and Barasso was heavily favored to win another term.[2]
Barrasso was easily re-elected with over 75% of the vote, carrying every county except Teton, and flipping Albany. Barrasso overperformed president Donald Trump in the concurrent Presidential election by 4.51%. This was the largest margin of victory in any U.S. Senate election since North Dakota in 2016.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- John Barrasso, incumbent U.S. senator (2007–present)[1]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- John Holtz, retired circuit court judge and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 and 2020[3]
- Reid Rasner, financial executive[4]
Endorsements
[edit]John Barrasso
Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, former President of the United States (2017–2021)[5]
U.S. Senators
- Cynthia Lummis, U.S. Senator from Wyoming[6]
U.S. Representatives
- Harriet Hageman, U.S. Representative for Wyoming's at-large congressional district (2023–present)[5]
Organizations
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Reid Rasner (R) | $262,251 | $180,915 | $81,336 |
| John Barrasso (R) | $7,171,125 | $3,736,139 | $7,392,759 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[9] | |||
Results
[edit]
Barrasso
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Barrasso (incumbent) | 70,494 | 67.9% | |
| Republican | Reid Rasner | 25,427 | 24.5% | |
| Republican | John Holtz | 7,868 | 7.6% | |
| Total votes | 103,789 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Scott Morrow, educator[3]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Scott Morrow | 10,088 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 10,088 | 100.0% | ||
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[11] | Solid R | May 3, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[12] | Solid R | July 28, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | Safe R | January 24, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[14] | Safe R | June 8, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[15] | Safe R | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[16] | Solid R | November 21, 2023 |
| RealClearPolitics[17] | Solid R | August 5, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[18] | Safe R | October 23, 2024 |
| 538[19] | Solid R | October 23, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Barrasso |
Scott Morrow |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[20] | October 26–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 73% | 26% | 1% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Barrasso (incumbent) | 198,418 | 75.11% | +8.15% | |
| Democratic | Scott Morrow | 63,727 | 24.12% | −5.98% | |
| Write-in | 2,017 | 0.76% | +0.60% | ||
| Total votes | 264,162 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
[edit]| County[22] | John Barrasso Republican |
Scott Morrow Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Albany | 9,737 | 55.34% | 7,745 | 44.02% | 114 | 0.65% | 1,992 | 11.32% | 17,596 |
| Big Horn | 4,922 | 86.90% | 703 | 12.41% | 39 | 0.69% | 4,219 | 74.49% | 5,664 |
| Campbell | 15,774 | 88.68% | 1,877 | 10.55% | 137 | 0.77% | 13,897 | 78.13% | 17,788 |
| Carbon | 5,028 | 80.01% | 1,216 | 19.35% | 40 | 0.64% | 3,812 | 60.66% | 6,284 |
| Converse | 5,699 | 86.97% | 802 | 12.24% | 52 | 0.79% | 4,897 | 74.73% | 6,553 |
| Crook | 3,817 | 89.94% | 393 | 9.26% | 34 | 0.80% | 3,424 | 80.68% | 4,244 |
| Fremont | 11,930 | 70.72% | 4,823 | 28.59% | 117 | 0.69% | 7,107 | 42.13% | 16,870 |
| Goshen | 5,066 | 83.01% | 1,011 | 16.57% | 26 | 0.43% | 4,055 | 66.44% | 6,103 |
| Hot Springs | 2,140 | 82.66% | 436 | 16.84% | 13 | 0.50% | 1,704 | 65.82% | 2,589 |
| Johnson | 4,063 | 84.15% | 727 | 15.06% | 38 | 0.79% | 3,336 | 69.10% | 4,828 |
| Laramie | 29,648 | 68.77% | 13,092 | 30.37% | 371 | 0.86% | 16,556 | 38.40% | 43,111 |
| Lincoln | 9,077 | 85.46% | 1,480 | 13.93% | 64 | 0.60% | 7,597 | 71.53% | 10,621 |
| Natrona | 25,240 | 75.90% | 7,674 | 23.08% | 342 | 1.03% | 17,566 | 52.82% | 33,256 |
| Niobrara | 1,073 | 89.94% | 118 | 9.89% | 2 | 0.17% | 955 | 80.05% | 1,193 |
| Park | 13,343 | 81.92% | 2,790 | 17.13% | 154 | 0.95% | 10,553 | 64.79% | 16,287 |
| Platte | 3,924 | 81.30% | 747 | 16.37% | 33 | 2.33% | 3,177 | 64.93% | 4,704 |
| Sheridan | 12,580 | 77.88% | 3,438 | 21.28% | 136 | 0.84% | 9,142 | 56.59% | 16,154 |
| Sublette | 4,007 | 82.98% | 779 | 16.13% | 43 | 0.89% | 3,228 | 66.85% | 4,829 |
| Sweetwater | 12,724 | 77.82% | 3,550 | 21.71% | 77 | 0.47% | 9,174 | 56.11% | 16,351 |
| Teton | 5,083 | 38.92% | 7,885 | 60.38% | 91 | 0.70% | -2,802 | -21.46% | 13,059 |
| Uinta | 7,310 | 82.68% | 1,478 | 16.72% | 53 | 0.60% | 5,832 | 65.97% | 8,841 |
| Washakie | 3,207 | 83.93% | 588 | 15.39% | 26 | 0.68% | 2,619 | 68.54% | 3,821 |
| Weston | 3,026 | 88.58% | 375 | 10.98% | 15 | 0.44% | 2,651 | 77.61% | 3,416 |
| Totals | 198,418 | 75.11% | 63,727 | 24.12% | 2,017 | 0.76% | 134,691 | 50.99% | 264,162 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
References
[edit]- ^ a b "Wyoming Sen. Barrasso Will Run for No. 2 Spot in GOP Leadership, Narrowing Race to Replace McConnell". US News & World Report. March 5, 2024. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
- ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
- ^ a b "Wyoming's Primary Election Is Set: 167 Candidates In 72 Contested Races". cowboystatedaily.com. May 31, 2024. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
- ^ Rasner, Ryan (August 4, 2023). "Reid Rasner of Wyoming Announces Candidacy for United States Senate". EIN News. Retrieved August 7, 2023.
- ^ a b Hageman, Harriet (May 4, 2024). "I'm Endorsing Sen. John Barrasso For Re-Election And Here's Why". Cowboy State Daily. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
- ^ https://goconow.com/senator-lummis-endorses-barrasso-for-reelection/
- ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
- ^ "Clear Path Action Fund". Clear Path Action Fund. Retrieved February 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Election United States Senate - Wyoming". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
- ^ a b "Legislative Candidates Summaries" (PDF). Wyoming Secretary of State. Retrieved November 20, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on November 1, 2024. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Wyoming Secretary of State. "2024 General Election Statewide Candidates Summary" (PDF). Retrieved November 16, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Senate Election (Official Returns)". Commonwealth of Wyoming by county. November 5, 2024. Retrieved December 5, 2024.
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites